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Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?

Author

Listed:
  • Reuven Glick
  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Mollie Pepper

Abstract

Households are currently expecting inflation to run high in the short run but to remain muted over the more distant future. Given this divergence, what role do short-run and long-run household inflation expectations play in determining what workers expect for future wages? Data show that wage inflation is sensitive to movements in household short-run inflation expectations but not to those over longer horizons. This points to an upside risk for inflation, as workers negotiate higher wages that businesses could pass on to consumers by raising prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven Glick & Sylvain Leduc & Mollie Pepper, 2022. "Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(21), pages 1-6, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:94630
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2020. "Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 26-62.
    2. Reuven Glick & Noah Kouchekinia & Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2021. "Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-06, July.
    3. Régis Barnichon & Luiz E. Oliveira & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2021. "Is the American Rescue Plan Taking Us Back to the ’60s?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(27), pages 1-06, October.
    4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2022. "Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(13), pages 1-05, May.
    5. Òscar Jordà & Celeste Liu & Fernanda Nechio & Fabián Rivera-Reyes, 2022. "Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(07), pages 1-06, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2023. "How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(13), pages 1-6, May.
    3. Òscar Jordà & Celeste Liu & Fernanda Nechio & Fabián Rivera-Reyes, 2022. "Wage Growth When Inflation Is High," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(25), pages 1-6, September.
    4. Martin DeLuca & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2023. "Postpandemic Nominal Wage Growth: Inflation Pass-Through or Labor Market Imbalance?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(13), pages 1-6, August.

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