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Does money still matter for U.S. output?

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  • Berger, Helge
  • Österholm, Pär

Abstract

In this note, we use multivariate models estimated with Bayesian techniques and an out-ofsample approach to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes output growth in the United States. We find surprisingly strong evidence for a money-output link over the 1960-2005 period. However, further analysis indicates that this result is likely to be misleading; after the Great moderation, the Granger-causal role of money appears to have vanished completely.

Suggested Citation

  • Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money still matter for U.S. output?," Discussion Papers 2008/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maral Kichian, 2012. "Financial Conditions and the Money-Output Relationship in Canada," Staff Working Papers 12-33, Bank of Canada.
    2. Caraiani, Petre, 2016. "Money and output causality: A structural approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 220-236.
    3. Taniya Ghosh & Abhishek Gorsi, 2023. "Money and output asymmetry: The Unintended consequences of central banks' obsession with inflation," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-07, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Petre Caraiani, 2014. "Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 743-763, March.
    5. Mallick, Sushanta & Matousek, Roman & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2016. "Financial development and productive inefficiency: A robust conditional directional distance function approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 196-201.
    6. Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
    7. Mihai Mutascu & Alexandre Sokic, 2023. "An extended wavelet approach of the money–output link in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1647-1665, April.
    8. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
    9. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 109054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi & Olofin Sodik Adejonwo, 2019. "Output Gap, Money Growth and Interest Rate in Japan: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 18(2), pages 171-184, December.
    11. Olivier Habimana, 2019. "Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of the Liquidity Effect and Monetary Neutrality," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 85-110, January.
    12. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    13. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 109585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Money and output: New evidence based on wavelet coherence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 547-550.
    15. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 100284, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; out-of-sample forecasting; granger causality; money; output; federal reserve; Volcker;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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