IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbi/wpaper/04-rt-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding Irish house price movements - a user cost of capital approach

Author

Listed:
  • Browne, Frank

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Conefrey, Thomas

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Kennedy, Gerard

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

This paper employs the user cost of capital to examine Irish house price movements. The bundle of services afforded by a dwelling can be accessed either by renting the dwelling or by outright purchase. Between 2002 and 2007, a combination of factors including rapid house price appreciation and the prevailing fiscal and monetary environment created a strong bias towards homeownership. This was reflected in a negative user cost of housing as capital gains exceeded funding costs (both direct mortgage cost and the opportunity cost) thereby incentivising home ownership and fuelling further increases in prices. We find that the collapse in house prices since 2007 has contributed to a reversal of this process. From mid-2007 onwards, the user cost has soared as capital losses have greatly exceeded the funding costs (albeit falling) causing house prices to fall further. Both fiscal and financial policy measures which could enable a more efficient functioning of the housing market are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Browne, Frank & Conefrey, Thomas & Kennedy, Gerard, 2013. "Understanding Irish house price movements - a user cost of capital approach," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:04/rt/13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/research-technical-papers/research-technical-paper-04rt13.pdf?sfvrsn=8
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2004. "Income Volatility and Residential Mortgage Delinquency: Evidence from 12 EU Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Robert Ferber, 1967. "Determinants of Investment Behavior," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ferb67-1.
    4. Dale Jorgenson, 1967. "The Theory of Investment Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Determinants of Investment Behavior, pages 129-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 58-62, May.
    6. Antonia Diaz & Maria Jose Luengo Prado, 2008. "On the User Cost and Homeownership," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 584-613, July.
    7. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
    8. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Income volatility and residential mortgage delinquency across the EU," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 153-177, September.
    10. Duffy, David, 2011. "User Cost and Irish House Prices," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), issue 3-Autumn.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brian Micallef & Nathaniel Debono, 2020. "The rental sector and the housing block in STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2020, Central Bank of Malta.
    2. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Credit availability, macroprudential regulations and the house price-to-rent ratio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 971-984.
    3. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Credit conditions and tenure choice: a cross-country examination," Papers WP582, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Ryan Fox & Peter Tulip, 2014. "Is Housing Overvalued?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    6. Alain Galli, 2017. "How Reliable are Cointegration-Based Estimates for Wealth Effects on Consumption? Evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 437-479, October.
    7. Kennedy, Gerard & O'Brien, Eoin & Woods, Maria, 2016. "Assessing the sustainability of Irish residential property prices: 1980Q1-2016Q2," Economic Letters 11/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Niall McInerney, 2016. "A Structural Model of Macroprudential Policy: the Case of Ireland," EcoMod2016 9643, EcoMod.
    9. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Mc Inerney, Niall, 2014. "The Role of Credit in the Housing Market," Papers WP495, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Clancy, Daragh & Cussen, Mary & Lydon, Reamonn, 2014. "Housing market developments and household consumption," Economic Letters 09/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    11. Lyons, Ronan C., 2018. "Credit conditions and the housing price ratio: Evidence from Ireland’s boom and bust," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 84-96.
    12. Ronan C Lyons, 2017. "Credit conditions and the housing price ratio: evidence from Ireland's bubble and crash," Trinity Economics Papers tep0717, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    13. Visar Hoxha & Alenka Temeljotov Salaj, 2014. "Fundamental Economic Factors That Affect Housing Prices: Comparative Analysis between Kosovo and Slovenia," Management, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
    14. Richard Keely & Ronan C. Lyons, 2022. "Housing Prices, Yields and Credit Conditions in Dublin since 1945," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 404-439, April.
    15. David Byrne & David Duffy & John FitzGerald, 2018. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice: Did the Great Irish Housing Bust Alter Consumer Behaviour?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 287-317.
    16. Kumar Verma, Akhilesh & McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Assessing expectations of European house prices," Papers WP783, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Voigtländer, Michael & Schuster, Florian, 2019. "European office markets, user costs and speculative bubbles," IW-Reports 31/2019, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    18. Carmen Silva & Camilo Vio, 2015. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors: evidence from Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(1), pages 4-24, April.
    19. Richard Keely & Ronan C Lyons, 2019. "Debt and Taxes: The Sale-Rent Housing Price Ratio in Dublin since 1945," Trinity Economics Papers tep0419, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    20. Mahlape Mohale & Hermanus Stephanus Geyer Jr. & Hermanus Stephanus Geyer, 2016. "Undervaluation of Real Estate Properties in Disadvantaged Areas in the City of Johannesburg," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(2), pages 217-229, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    2. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Credit availability, macroprudential regulations and the house price-to-rent ratio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 971-984.
    3. repec:grz:wpaper:2017-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. André K. Anundsen, 2019. "Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes Up Must Come Down?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(4), pages 1587-1619, October.
    5. repec:grz:wpaper:2019-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2019. "Assessing price sustainability in the Irish housing market: A county-level analysis," Research Notes RN20190401, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Goeyvaerts, Geert & Buyst, Erik, 2019. "Do market rents reflect user costs?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 112-130.
    8. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor & Hauser, Lea, 2024. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2024," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC2024SPR, march.
    9. Wang, Hui & Riedinger, Jeffrey & Jin, Songqing, 2015. "Land documents, tenure security and land rental development: Panel evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 220-235.
    10. Park, Donghyun & Xiao, Qin, 2009. "Housing Prices and the Role of Speculation: The Case of Seoul," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 146, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Schimmelpfennig, Axel, 1998. "The celtic tiger faces the factor price frontier: Labour market adjustment in Ireland," Kiel Working Papers 855, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    13. Abdul Waheed, 2015. "Determinants of Domestic Private Investment: Test of Alternative Hypotheses for Pakistan," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 4(2), pages 35-43, April.
    14. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Kataria, Karin & Curtiss, Jarmila & Balmann, Alfons, 2012. "Drivers of Agricultural Physical Capital Development: Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses," Factor Markets Working Papers 122, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    16. Krysiak, Frank C., 2006. "Stochastic intertemporal duality: An application to investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1363-1387, August.
    17. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    18. Jorge Navas Rodenes & Jesus Marin Solano, 2006. "A comment on the cost of capital for investments with non-homogeneous components," Working Papers in Economics 146, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    19. Magnus Henrekson & Tino Sanandaji, 2011. "Entrepreneurship and the theory of taxation," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 167-185, September.
    20. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschova, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2009. "Mortgage Indebtedness and Household Financial Distress," IZA Discussion Papers 4631, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Elizabeth Baldwin, Yongyang Cai, Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2018. "To build or not to build? Capital stocks and climate policy," GRI Working Papers 290, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    22. Willem H. Buiter, 1981. "Macroeconometric Modelling for Policy Evaluation and Design," NBER Technical Working Papers 0013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; user cost; bubbles; rents; equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:04/rt/13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fiona Farrelly (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbigvie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.