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Inflation Dynamics in Romania - a New Keynesian Perspective

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  • Nicoleta Ciurila
  • Bogdan Murarasu

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to identify the main factors which drive inflation in Romania: inflation persistence, inflation expectations and real economy variables. We estimate a reduced form hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve in order to determine the degree of inertia and the impact of forward looking expectations. As a proxy for real economic activity, we alternatively use the output gap, the unemployment gap, the unit labour cost, the capacity utilization rate and the economic sentiment indicator. We focus on the role of the monetary policy in controlling the various sources of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoleta Ciurila & Bogdan Murarasu, 2008. "Inflation Dynamics in Romania - a New Keynesian Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 31-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xi:y:2008:i:4:p:31-38
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    2. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
    5. Sigal Ribon, 2004. "A New Phillips Curve for Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2004.11, Bank of Israel.
    6. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 132, European Central Bank.
    7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    8. Matheson, Troy D., 2008. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 161-166, February.
    9. Júlia Lendvai, 2005. "Hungarian Inflation Dynamics," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/46, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Jordi Galí & J David López-Salido, 2001. "A New Phillips curve for Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 174-203, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2007. "Estimated Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curves for the G7," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 405-426, September.
    12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Brezeanu, Petre & Huidumac, Catalin & Morar Triandafil, Adrian, 2011. "The Drivers of the CEE Exchange Rate Volatility - Empirical Perspective in the context of the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 212-229, March.
    2. Adina Ionela Străchinaru & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu, 2019. "Assessing the Sustainability of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from EU Countries with Non-EURO Currencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-13, October.
    3. Dorin Jula & Nicoleta Jula, 2017. "The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 36-48, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Inflation dynamics; GMM estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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