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Trade Contraction and Employment in India and South Africa during the Global Crisis

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  • Kucera, David
  • Roncolato, Leanne
  • von Uexkull, Erik

Abstract

The paper estimates the effects of the 2008–09 trade contraction on employment in India and South Africa, using social accounting matrices (SAMs) in a Leontief multiplier model. Employment results are presented at aggregate and industry levels and examine gender and skills biases. The most notable finding is that India and South Africa experienced substantial employment declines as a result of trade contraction with the European Union and the United States. A large share of these declines occurred in the non-tradable sector and resulted from income-induced effects, illustrating how a shock originating in the tradable goods sector had strong ripple effects throughout these economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kucera, David & Roncolato, Leanne & von Uexkull, Erik, 2012. "Trade Contraction and Employment in India and South Africa during the Global Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1122-1134.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:40:y:2012:i:6:p:1122-1134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.11.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David KUCERA & Leanne RONCOLATO, 2011. "Trade liberalization, employment and inequality in India and South Africa," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 150(1-2), pages 1-41, June.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "Understanding South Africa's economic puzzles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 769-797, October.
    3. Anne O. KRUEGER, 2008. "The Role of Trade and International Economic Policy in Indian Economic Performance," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(2), pages 266-285, December.
    4. David Kucera & William Milberg, 2003. "Deindustrialization and changes in manufacturing trade: Factor content calculations for 1978–1995," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(4), pages 601-624, December.
    5. Leung, Ron & Stampini, Marco & Vencatachellum, Désiré, 2009. "Does Human Capital Protect Workers against Exogenous Shocks? South Africa in the 2008-2009 Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 4608, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 193-228, September.
    7. Verick, Sher., 2010. "Unravelling the impact of the global financial crisis on the South African labour market," ILO Working Papers 994541013402676, International Labour Organization.
    8. Kumar, Rajiv & Vashisht, Pankaj, 2009. "The Global Economic Crisis: Impact on India and Policy Responses," ADBI Working Papers 164, Asian Development Bank Institute.
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    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Howard J. Shatz, 1994. "Trade and Jobs in Manufacturing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 1-84.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fatima Olanike Kareem & Olayinka Idowu Kareem, 2021. "Employment Responses to EU Food Safety Regulations: A Gendered Perspective," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(6), pages 1899-1929, December.
    3. Mehrotra, Santosh & Parida, Jajati K., 2017. "Why is the Labour Force Participation of Women Declining in India?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 360-380.
    4. Habiyaremye, Alexis & Jacobs, Peter & Molewa, Olebogeng & Lekomanyane, Pelontle, 2021. "Macroeconomic stimulus packages and income inequality in developing countries: Lessons from the 2007-9 Great Recession for the Covid-19 crisis in South Africa," MERIT Working Papers 2021-006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Essers, Dennis, 2013. "South African labour market transitions during the global financial and economic crisis: Micro-level evidence from the NIDS panel and matched QLFS cross-sections," IOB Working Papers 2013.12, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    6. Stephan Klasen & Janneke Pieters, 2015. "What Explains the Stagnation of Female Labor Force Participation in Urban India?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 449-478.
    7. David Kucera & Xiao Jiang, 2018. "China and the great trade collapse: employment effects of falling exports to the EU and US," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 629-659, July.
    8. Dennis Essers, 2014. "South African Labour Market Transitions During the Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Micro-Level Evidence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-115, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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