IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v15y2018i3d10.1007_s10368-017-0378-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China and the great trade collapse: employment effects of falling exports to the EU and US

Author

Listed:
  • David Kucera

    (International Labour Organization)

  • Xiao Jiang

    (Denison University)

Abstract

The paper investigates employment effects of falling exports from China to the EU and US during the great trade collapse of 2008–9. The paper uses fixed multiplier analysis to address employment effects resulting from input-output production linkages between trade and employment as well as from associated changes in household income and expenditures. Main findings are that substantial negative employment effects resulted in China from these linkages; that a large share of these employment effects were income-induced; and that industries in which women workers were disproportionately represented were harder hit through these linkages.

Suggested Citation

  • David Kucera & Xiao Jiang, 2018. "China and the great trade collapse: employment effects of falling exports to the EU and US," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 629-659, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:15:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-017-0378-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-017-0378-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-017-0378-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-017-0378-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vodopivec, Milan & Tong, Minna Hahn, 2008. "China : improving unemployment insurance," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 44779, The World Bank.
    2. Wang, Zhi & Gehlhar, Mark & Yao, Shunli, 2007. "Reconciling Trade Statistics from China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners--A Mathematical Programming Approach," GTAP Technical Papers 2517, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    4. Kucera, David & Roncolato, Leanne & von Uexkull, Erik, 2012. "Trade Contraction and Employment in India and South Africa during the Global Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1122-1134.
    5. World Bank, 2015. "World Development Indicators 2015," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21634.
    6. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Zhicheng Liang, 2006. "Financial Development And Income Distribution: A System Gmm Panel Analysis With Application To Urban China," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Wang, Zhi, 2008. "Accounting for discrepancies in bilateral trade: The case of China, Hong Kong, and the United States," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 502-520, September.
    9. Simon J. Evenett & Johannes Fritz & Yang Chun Jing, 2012. "Beyond dollar exchange-rate targeting: China’s crisis-era export management regime," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(2), pages 284-300, SUMMER.
    10. Carlo Altomonte & Filippo Di Mauro & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Armando Rungi & Vincent Vicard, 2012. "Global Value Chains During the Great Trade Collapse: A Bullwhip Effect?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1131, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Yu Yongding, 2010. "Asia: China's Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-10, January.
    12. Xiao Jiang, 2013. "Trade expansion and employment generation: how mercantilist does China have to be?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 557-573, July.
    13. Fenglian Du & Xiao-yuan Dong, 2009. "Why do women have longer durations of unemployment than men in post-restructuring urban China?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(2), pages 233-252, March.
    14. Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley & Lillie Lam, 2013. "The Roles of Saving, Investment and the Renminbi in Rebalancing the Chinese Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 72-84, February.
    15. Dai, Mi & Maitra, Madhura & Yu, Miaojie, 2016. "Unexceptional exporter performance in China? The role of processing trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 177-189.
    16. World Bank, 2010. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2415.
    17. Hangyu Lee, 2012. "The Great Trade Collapse and Contraction of Exports from Korea during the Global Crisis," Chapters, in: Maurice Obstfeld & Dongchul Cho & Andrew Mason (ed.), Global Economic Crisis, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Jieyu Liu, 2007. "Gender dynamics and redundancy in urban China," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3-4), pages 125-158.
    19. Lu, Jiangyong & Lu, Yi & Tao, Zhigang, 2010. "Exporting behavior of foreign affiliates: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 197-205, July.
    20. Taylor, Lance & Lysy, Frank J., 1979. "Vanishing income redistributions : Keynesian clues about model surprises in the short run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 11-29, February.
    21. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    22. Ettore Dorrucci & Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "China’s economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Papers 1301, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    23. Hiro Ito & Ulrich Volz, 2013. "China and Global Imbalances from a View of Sectorial Reforms," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 57-71, February.
    24. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl, 2012. "Automatic stabilization and discretionary fiscal policy in the financial crisis," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-19, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Veronika Zavacka, 2012. "The bullwhip effect and the Great Trade Collapse," Working Papers 148, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    2. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    3. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2018. "Quality and the Great Trade Collapse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 59-76.
    4. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9oc1hne632 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 225-260.
    7. Ariu, Andrea, 2016. "Crisis-proof services: Why trade in services did not suffer during the 2008–2009 collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 138-149.
    8. Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2013. "Towards a theory of trade finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 96-112.
    9. Yang Jiao & Yi Wen, 2019. "What Does Financial Crisis Tell Us About Exporter Behavior and Credit Reallocation?," Working Papers 2019-23, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Xi Lin & Ling-Yun He, 2023. "The More the Merrier? Evidence from Firm-Level Exports and Environmental Performance in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 125-172, January.
    11. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2014. "The micro evolution of trade and turnover in Turkey under the global crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 397-414.
    12. Bie, Xiaodong & Ciani, Andrea, 2021. "Born similar, develop apart: Evidence on Chinese hybrid exporters," DICE Discussion Papers 364, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9oc1hne632 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Eppinger, Peter & Smolka, Marcel, 2015. "Firm Exports, Foreign Ownership, and the Global Financial Crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113039, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    16. Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2019. "Trade policy repercussions: the role of local product space -Evidence from China," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02065779, HAL.
    17. Cletus C. Coughlin, 2014. "The great trade collapse and rebound: a state-by-state view," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 13-33.
    18. Marion Dovis & Chahir Zaki, 2018. "Global Value Chains and Business Environment: Which Factors Do Really Matter?," Working Papers 1270, Economic Research Forum, revised 19 Dec 2018.
    19. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    20. Hummels, David & Lee, Kwan Yong, 2018. "The income elasticity of import demand: Micro evidence and an application," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 20-34.
    21. Emir Malikov & Shunan Zhao & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2020. "Estimation of firm‐level productivity in the presence of exports: Evidence from China's manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 457-480, June.
    22. Anna Watson, 2019. "Financial Frictions, the Great Trade Collapse and International Trade over the Business Cycle," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 19-64, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:15:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-017-0378-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.