IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v138y2021ics0305750x20303788.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why is the number of COVID-19 cases lower than expected in Sub-Saharan Africa? A cross-sectional analysis of the role of demographic and geographic factors

Author

Listed:
  • Nguimkeu, Pierre
  • Tadadjeu, Sosson

Abstract

Unlike initially predicted by WHO, the severity of the novel coronavirus pandemic has remained relatively low in Sub-Saharan Africa, more than two months after the first confirmed cases were identified. In this paper, we analyze the extent to which demographic and geographic factors associated to the disease explain this phenomenon. We use publicly available data from a cross-section of 182 countries worldwide, and we employ a regression analysis that accounts for possible misreporting of COVID-19 cases, as well as a Ramsey-type specification that preserves degree of freedom. We found that proportion of population aged 65+, population density, and urbanization are significantly positively associated with high numbers of active infected cases, while mean temperature around the first quarter (January-March) is negatively associated to this COVID-19 outcome. These factors are those for which Africa has a comparative advantage. In contrast, factors for which Africa has a relative disadvantage, such as income and quality of health care infrastructure, are found to be insignificant predictors of the spread of the pandemic. These results hold even when accounting for possible underreporting, as well as differences in the duration of the epidemic in each country, as measured by the time elapsed since the first confirmed case occurred. We conclude that differences in demographic and geographic characteristics help understand the relatively low progression of the pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa as well as the gap in the number of active cases between this region and the rest of the World. We also found, however, that this gap is insignificant beyond these factors, and is expected to narrow over time as the pandemic evolves. These results provide insights for relevant urban policies and kinds of development planning to consider in the fight against disease spreads of the coronavirus type.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguimkeu, Pierre & Tadadjeu, Sosson, 2021. "Why is the number of COVID-19 cases lower than expected in Sub-Saharan Africa? A cross-sectional analysis of the role of demographic and geographic factors," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:138:y:2021:i:c:s0305750x20303788
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20303788
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105251?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. Stillwaggon, 2002. "HIV/AIDS in Africa: Fertile Terrain," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 1-22.
    2. Jerry Hausman, 2001. "Mismeasured Variables in Econometric Analysis: Problems from the Right and Problems from the Left," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 57-67, Fall.
    3. Ssozi, John & Amlani, Shirin, 2015. "The Effectiveness of Health Expenditure on the Proximate and Ultimate Goals of Healthcare in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 165-179.
    4. E. Van de Poel & O. O'Donnell & E. Van Doorslaer, 2012. "Is there a health penalty of China's rapid urbanization?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 367-385, April.
    5. Obrizan, Maksym & Wehby, George L., 2018. "Health Expenditures and Global Inequalities in Longevity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 28-36.
    6. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    7. Gallet, Craig A. & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2017. "The impact of healthcare spending on health outcomes: A meta-regression analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 9-17.
    8. Simon Condliffe & Charles R. Link, 2008. "The Relationship between Economic Status and Child Health: Evidence from the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1605-1618, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. V. Seror & G. Maradan & E.-H. Ba & S. Cortaredona & C. Berenger & Olivier L’haridon & C. Sokhna & Jocelyn Raude, 2021. "COVID-19-related attitudes, risk perceptions, preventive behaviours and economic impact in sub-Saharan African countries: Implementing a longitudinal phone-based survey protocol in rural Senegalese ho," Post-Print hal-03335734, HAL.
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Lück, Ole & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2021. "Covid-19 in Africa and its impact on the economy," Kiel Policy Brief 158, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Karanfil, Fatih & Omgba, Luc Désiré, 2023. "The energy transition and export diversification in oil-dependent countries: The role of structural factors," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PB).
    4. Pongou, Roland & Sidie, Ghislain Junior & Tchuente, Guy & Tondji, Jean-Baptiste, 2022. "Profits, Pandemics, and Lockdown Effectiveness in Nursing Home Networks," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1131, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Meagher, Kate, 2022. "Crisis narratives and the African paradox: African informal economies, COVID-19 and the decolonization of social policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117263, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Matthew A. Aubourg & Lucien Bisimwa & Jean Claude Bisimwa & Presence Sanvura & Camille Williams & Raissa Boroto & Claude Lunyelunye & Jessy Timsifu & Brigitte Munyerenkana & Kelly Endres & Peter J. Wi, 2022. "A Qualitative Evaluation of COVID-19 Preventative Response Activities in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Seydou Coulibaly, 2021. "COVID‐19 policy responses, inflation and spillover effects in the West African Economic and Monetary Union," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 139-151, April.
    9. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2021. "COVID-19 Trade Actions in the Agricultural and Food Sector," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 52(2), July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hilaire Gbodja Houeninvo, 2022. "Effects of health expenditures on infant and child mortality rates: A dynamic panel data analysis of 37 African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(2), pages 255-267, June.
    2. Ernesto R. Ferreira & João D. Monteiro, 2019. "In an Era of Social, Civic and Political Disengagement, do Health Care and Social Welfare Protection Still Matter to Population Health? Evidence from OECD Mortality Data," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 41(4), pages 415-432, December.
    3. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2019. "How Many Life-Years Have New Drugs Saved? A 3-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis of 66 Diseases in 27 Countries, 2000-2013," NBER Working Papers 25483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lopreite, Milena & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "The effects of ageing population on health expenditure and economic growth in China: A Bayesian-VAR approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    5. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    6. Chakraborty, Shankha & Papageorgiou, Chris & Pérez Sebastián, Fidel, 2010. "Diseases, infection dynamics, and development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 859-872, October.
    7. Jiang Cheng & Lu Yu, 2019. "Life and health insurance consumption in China: demographic and environmental risks," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(1), pages 67-101, January.
    8. Patricia Apps & Ray Rees, 2007. "Population Ageing, Taxation, pensions and Health Costs," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 10(2), pages 79-97.
    9. Shuyang Chen, 2021. "The Urbanisation Impacts on the Policy Effects of the Carbon Tax in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-11, June.
    10. Adele Bergin, 2015. "Employer Changes and Wage Changes: Estimation with Measurement Error in a Binary Variable," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 29(2), pages 194-223, June.
    11. Stefania Albanesi & Claudia Olivetti, 2014. "Maternal health and the baby boom," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 5, pages 225-269, July.
    12. Timofeeva, Anastasiia, 2015. "On endogeneity of consumer expenditures in the estimation of households demand system," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 37(1), pages 87-106.
    13. Christos A Makridis & Andrew A Borkowski & Gil Alterovitz, 2024. "Perspectives on advancing innovation and human flourishing through a network of AI institutes," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 557-562.
    14. Catherine Fuss & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2018. "Compositional Changes in Aggregate Productivity in an Era of Globalisation and Financial Crisis," Working Papers of VIVES - Research Centre for Regional Economics 627696, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), VIVES - Research Centre for Regional Economics.
    15. Lodefalk, Magnus & Kyvik Nordås, Hildegunn, 2017. "Trading firms and trading costs in services: The case of Sweden," Working Papers 2017:4, Örebro University, School of Business.
    16. Jana Asher & Beth Osborne Daponte, 2010. "A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-40, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    17. Ryan Edwards, 2013. "The cost of uncertain life span," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1485-1522, October.
    18. Prasanna Tambe & Lorin M. Hitt, 2014. "Measuring Information Technology Spillovers," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 25(1), pages 53-71, March.
    19. James J. Feigenbaum & Christopher Muller & Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2019. "Regional and Racial Inequality in Infectious Disease Mortality in U.S. Cities, 1900–1948," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1371-1388, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:138:y:2021:i:c:s0305750x20303788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.