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Covid-19 in Africa and its impact on the economy

Author

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  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Lück, Ole
  • Meuchelböck, Saskia

Abstract

Die Zahl der Covid-19-Fälle und der damit verbundenen Todesfälle in Afrika wird in den offiziellen Daten erheblich unterschätzt, da die Test- und Überwachungskapazitäten in vielen Ländern gering sind. Schätzungen der Übersterblichkeit zeigen, dass die Meldelücke im Vergleich zu anderen Weltregionen besonders groß ist, Afrika gleichwohl immer noch relativ gut abschneidet. Die Autoren stellen fest, dass der Rückgang der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in Afrika im Jahr 2020 zwar weniger stark war als ursprünglich befürchtet, aber dennoch der historisch stärkste Einbruch des BIP und die erste Rezession seit 25 Jahren ist - wenn auch bei deutlichen Unterschieden von Land zu Land. Trotz einer einsetzenden Erholung dürfte die Pandemie die Entwicklung Afrikas nach Einschätzung der Autoren auch längerfristig bremsen, da die Akkumulation sowohl von Human- als auch von Sachkapital durch den Covid-19-Schock beeinträchtigt wurde und der fiskalische Spielraum wie auch die geldpolitischen Optionen in vielen afrikanischen Ländern erschöpft sind. Zur Begrenzung der künftigen gesundheitlichen und wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen wird eine höhere Impfquote als erforderlich angesehen. Um die im internationalen Vergleich mit etwa 5 Prozent sehr niedrige Impfquote in Afrika zu erhöhen, ist die internationale Gemeinschaft gefordert, rasch eine ausreichende und erschwingliche Versorgung mit Impfstoffen sicherzustellen.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Lück, Ole & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2021. "Covid-19 in Africa and its impact on the economy," Kiel Policy Brief 158, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Nguimkeu, Pierre & Tadadjeu, Sosson, 2021. "Why is the number of COVID-19 cases lower than expected in Sub-Saharan Africa? A cross-sectional analysis of the role of demographic and geographic factors," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2021. "Weltwirtschaft im Herbst 2021 - Erholungspfad mit Stolpersteinen [World Economy Autumn 2021 - Stumbling blocks on the road to recovery]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 81, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Africa; Covid-19; economic development; economic policy; Afrika; Covid-19; Entwicklung; Wirtschaftspolitik;
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