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A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development

Author

Listed:
  • Jana Asher

    (Human Development Research Office (HDRO), StatAid)

  • Beth Osborne Daponte

    (Human Development Research Office (HDRO), Yale University)

Abstract

This research provides a model of growth of the human development index (HDI) by examining past changes and levels of HDI and creates four ÒcohortsÓ of countries. Using a hypothetical cohort approach reveals a model of HDI growth. Generalized Estimating Equations are used to determine the impact that country characteristics have on HDI. The analysis shows that conflict has a significant impact on HDI. Further, while in 1970, the countries whose HDI was most impacted by conflict were developing nations, currently, conflict is most detrimental to the least developed countries. The research also shows that the 1990s presented particular challenges to the least developed countries, perhaps attributable to ramifications of the AIDS crisis. The research then uses the model to predict HDI in the future and compares results from the prediction with projections that result when Ðrecalculating HDI using components that various agencies have separately projected.

Suggested Citation

  • Jana Asher & Beth Osborne Daponte, 2010. "A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-40, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    • Handle: RePEc:hdr:papers:hdrp-2010-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Wannaphong Durongkaveroj and Rossarin Osathanunkul & Rossarin Osathanunkul, 2013. "Regional multipliers of social accounting matrix and the effective eradication of poverty," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(4), pages 39-52, December.
    3. Wilson, E. J. & Jayanthakumaran, K. & Verma, R., 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," ADBI Working Papers 387, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. durongkaveroj, wannaphong & osathanunkul, rossarin, 2014. "การลดความยากจนและการพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจในกลุ่มประเทศต่างๆ [Poverty Reduction and Economic Development in various groups of country]," MPRA Paper 54433, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Feb 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    human development index; conflict; hypothetical cohorts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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