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A novel approach for predicting urban pavement damage based on facility information: A case study of Beijing, China

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  • Li, Sirui
  • Liu, Ying
  • Wang, Pengfei
  • Liu, Peng
  • Meng, Jun

Abstract

This study aims to establish a novel approach for predicting urban pavement damage without using any road inspection data. For this purpose, three indicators are constructed to describe the road-use intensity based on the concept of centrality in transportation planning and economic geography. These indicators are defined to represent two variables: importance to the city and centrality for surrounding users. In addition, these indicators are adopted in a model for pavement damage prediction that follows a classic logit form, the application of which is illustrated for a selected sample area in Beijing. The significance and validity of each indicator are verified. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed model is acceptable and achieves a prediction accuracy rate that is generally greater than 85%. Furthermore, the proposed approach is more cost-effective than traditional methods of pavement damage prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Sirui & Liu, Ying & Wang, Pengfei & Liu, Peng & Meng, Jun, 2020. "A novel approach for predicting urban pavement damage based on facility information: A case study of Beijing, China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 26-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:91:y:2020:i:c:p:26-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.02.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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