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An analysis of accelerated vehicle retirement programs using a discrete choice personal vehicle model

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  • Kavalec, Chris
  • Setiawan, Winardi

Abstract

This paper introduces a methodology to analyze the costs and effects of a large-scale light-duty vehicle retirement program, such as the one scheduled for the Los Angeles region beginning in 1999. This methodology allows, for a given number of vehicle retirements, estimates of: the bounty required, the number of retired vehicles that would be replaced, the net effect on vehicle miles traveled and fuel use, the reduction in emissions, and the welfare effects by income level. The paper then presents the results from simulations of two programs in the Los Angeles region in place from 1999 to 2010. It is shown that a program targeting 20-yr and older vehicles is likely to be more cost-effective and have less of an impact on used car prices than a program targeting 10-yr and older autos.

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  • Kavalec, Chris & Setiawan, Winardi, 1997. "An analysis of accelerated vehicle retirement programs using a discrete choice personal vehicle model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 95-107, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:4:y:1997:i:2:p:95-107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Alberini & Winston Harrington & Virginia McConnell, 1995. "Determinants of Participation in Accelerated Vehicle-Retirement Programs," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(1), pages 93-112, Spring.
    2. Alberini, Anna & Harrington, Winston & McConnell, Virginia, 1996. "Estimating an Emissions Supply Function from Accelerated Vehicle Retirement Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 251-265, May.
    3. Robert W. Hahn, 1995. "An Economic Analysis of Scrappage," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(2), pages 222-242, Summer.
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    1. Lorentziadis, Panos L. & Vournas, Stylianos G., 2011. "A quantitative model of accelerated vehicle-retirement induced by subsidy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 623-629, June.
    2. BenDor, Todd & Ford, Andrew, 2006. "Simulating a combination of feebates and scrappage incentives to reduce automobile emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1197-1214.
    3. Jie Lin & Cynthia Chen & Debbie Niemeier, 2008. "An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 219-235, March.
    4. Böckers, Veit & Heimeshoff, Ulrich & Müller, Andrea, 2012. "Vorsprung durch Technik: Empirical Evidence of the German Scrappage Program," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62043, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Agbelie, Bismark & Libnao, Kathleen, 2018. "Unobserved heterogeneity analysis of rail transit incident delays," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 39-43.
    6. Böckers, Veit & Heimeshoff,Ulrich & Müller, Andrea, 2012. "Pull-forward effects in the German car scrappage scheme: A time series approach," DICE Discussion Papers 56, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    7. Lee, Yongseung & Kim, Chongman & Shin, Juneseuk, 2016. "A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 438-449.
    8. Ashok Kaul & Gregor Pfeifer & Stefan Witte, 2012. "The incidence of Cash for Clunkers: an analysis of the 2009 car scrappage scheme in Germany," ECON - Working Papers 068, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    9. Zolnik, Edmund J., 2012. "Estimates of statewide and nationwide carbon dioxide emission reductions and their costs from Cash for Clunkers," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 271-281.
    10. Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor, 2015. "Synthesizing Cash for Clunkers: Stabilizing the Car Market, Hurting the Environment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113207, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Brand, Christian & Anable, Jillian & Tran, Martino, 2013. "Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 132-148.
    12. Ashok Kaul & Gregor Pfeifer & Stefan Witte, 2016. "The incidence of Cash for Clunkers: Evidence from the 2009 car scrappage scheme in Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1093-1125, December.
    13. Müller, Andrea & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2013. "Evaluating the Causal Effects of Cash-for-Clunkers Programs in Selected Countries: Success or Failure?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79802, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Balaguer, Jacint & Pernías, José C. & Ripollés, Jordi, 2023. "Is vehicle scrapping affected by low-emission zones? The case of Madrid," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    15. Matthew G. Karlaftis, 2011. "Modeling transit vehicle repair duration and active service time," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 433-442, April.
    16. Vidyattama, Yogi & Tanton, Robert & Nakanishi, Hitomi, 2021. "Investigating Australian households’ vehicle ownership and its relationship with emission tax policy options," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 196-205.
    17. Kavalec, Chris & Setiawan, Winardi, 1997. "An analysis of per mile pollution fees for motor vehicles in California's south coast," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 267-273, October.
    18. Antweiler, Werner & Gulati, Sumeet, 2015. "Scrapping for clean air: Emissions savings from the BC SCRAP-IT program," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 198-214.
    19. Kavalec, Chris & Woods, James, 1999. "Toward marginal cost pricing of accident risk: the energy, travel, and welfare impacts of pay-at-the-pump auto insurance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 331-342, June.
    20. Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Madre, Jean-Loup & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 2004. "An analysis of the effects of French vehicle inspection program and grant for scrappage on household vehicle transaction," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 905-926, December.
    21. Laborda, Juan & Moral, María J., 2019. "Scrappage by age: Cash for Clunkers matters!," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 488-504.

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