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The incidence of Cash for Clunkers: Evidence from the 2009 car scrappage scheme in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Ashok Kaul

    (University of Zurich
    Saarland University
    IPE – Institute for Policy Evaluation)

  • Gregor Pfeifer

    (University of Hohenheim)

  • Stefan Witte

    (IPE – Institute for Policy Evaluation)

Abstract

This paper investigates the German car scrappage program, focusing on the incidence of the premium. We ask how much of the €2500 ($3500) buyer subsidy is actually captured by the demand side. More precisely, we analyze the program’s impact on different car segments, allowing for heterogeneity in incidence at different points in the vehicle price distribution. Using a unique microtransaction data set, we find that the incidence of the subsidy strongly and significantly varies across price segments. Subsidized buyers of cheap cars paid a little more than comparable buyers who did not receive the subsidy, indicating incidence amounts slightly below 100 %. For more expensive vehicles, subsidized buyers were granted large extra discounts on top of the government premium, translating into incidence amounts considerably greater than 100 %. Taken together, this results in an aggregate incidence amount of up to plus €350 million, suggesting that the positive effect for expensive cars overcompensates the negative effect for small cars.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashok Kaul & Gregor Pfeifer & Stefan Witte, 2016. "The incidence of Cash for Clunkers: Evidence from the 2009 car scrappage scheme in Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1093-1125, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:23:y:2016:i:6:d:10.1007_s10797-016-9396-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-016-9396-1
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    2. Jacquelyn Pless & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2019. "Pass-Through as a Test for Market Power: An Application to Solar Subsidies," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 367-401, October.
    3. Xavier D’Haultfœuille & Isis Durrmeyer & Philippe Février, 2019. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium with Unobserved Price Discrimination," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 1973-1998.
    4. Lüth, Hendrik, 2021. "Reassessing Car Scrappage Schemes in Selected OECD Countries: A Synthetic Control Method Application," Working Paper 190/2021, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    5. Marin, Giovanni & Zoboli, Roberto, 2020. "Effectiveness of car scrappage schemes: Counterfactual-based evidence on the Italian experience," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    6. Helm, Ines & Koch, Nicolas & Rohlf, Alexander, 2023. "The effects of cash for clunkers on local air quality," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor, 2015. "Synthesizing Cash for Clunkers: Stabilizing the Car Market, Hurting the Environment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113207, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Yan, Shiyu & Eskeland, Gunnar S., 2018. "Greening the vehicle fleet: Norway's CO2-Differentiated registration tax," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 247-262.
    9. Laborda, Juan & Moral, María J., 2019. "Scrappage by age: Cash for Clunkers matters!," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 488-504.
    10. Gulati, Sumeet & McAusland, Carol & Sallee, James M., 2017. "Tax incidence with endogenous quality and costly bargaining: Theory and evidence from hybrid vehicle subsidies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 93-107.
    11. KITANO Taiju, 2023. "Greening Vehicle Fleets: A structural analysis of scrappage programs during the financial crisis," Discussion papers 23014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash for Clunkers; Scrappage scheme; Incidence; Subsidy; Pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment

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