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The self-defeating nature of urban road capacity policy : A review of theories, disputes and available evidence

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  • Mogridge, Martin J H

Abstract

For over 30 years, an argument has been proceeding among researchers who have analysed trends in urban traffic conditions, with notable contributions from Downs, Thomson, Smeed, Zahavi, Bly, Webster and the author. The argument has been rather theoretical, but has an important policy issue at its heart: if urban road capacity is increased, does this result in some improvement in traffic speeds (as traffic engineers have hoped), or does it make congestion worse (as many urban authorities now suspect)? Resolving this question depends on explaining the ubiquitous observations that there is a very wide variation in day-to-day running speeds for individual vehicles on particular journeys, but there is only slight long-term change in average traffic speeds, in spite of the substantial growth in car ownership and the many different transport policies which have been adopted. This paper reviews the views and empirical evidence that have been put forward to date, and defends the conclusion that the counter-intuitive argument is in fact correct: increasing road capacity in congested conditions can make congestion worse. The reason for this lies in the interaction between private and public transport, or rather between individual and collective transport. An important policy conclusion follows: a necessary condition for increasing journey speeds in towns (for both car users and collective transport users) is to improve the quality of collective transport. Sample calculations suggest that the average direct journey speed in central London may be more than doubled by such a policy.

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  • Mogridge, Martin J H, 1997. "The self-defeating nature of urban road capacity policy : A review of theories, disputes and available evidence," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 5-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:4:y:1997:i:1:p:5-23
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    Cited by:

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    2. Heyndrickx, Christophe & Vanheukelom, Toon & Proost, Stef, 2021. "Distributional impact of a regional road pricing scheme in Flanders," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 116-139.
    3. Laurent Denant-Boemont & Sabrina Hammiche, 2009. "Public Transit Capacity and Users Choice: AnExperiment on Downs-Thomson Paradox," Working Papers halshs-00405501, HAL.
    4. Sweet, Matthias N., 2014. "Do firms flee traffic congestion?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 40-49.
    5. Hörcher, Daniel & Tirachini, Alejandro, 2021. "A review of public transport economics," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    6. Basso, Leonardo J. & Jara-Díaz, Sergio R., 2012. "Integrating congestion pricing, transit subsidies and mode choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 890-900.
    7. Wang, Wei (Walker) & Wang, David Z.W. & Zhang, Fangni & Sun, Huijun & Zhang, Wenyi & Wu, Jianjun, 2017. "Overcoming the Downs-Thomson Paradox by transit subsidy policies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 126-147.
    8. Francesco Filippi, 2022. "A Paradigm Shift for a Transition to Sustainable Urban Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-27, March.
    9. Næss, Petter, 2012. "Urban form and travel behavior: experience from a Nordic context," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 5(2), pages 21-45.
    10. Bindong Sun & Tinglin Zhang & Zhou He & Rui Wang, 2017. "Urban Spatial Structure And Motorization In China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 470-486, June.
    11. Zhi (Aaron) Cheng & Min-Seok Pang & Paul A. Pavlou, 2020. "Mitigating Traffic Congestion: The Role of Intelligent Transportation Systems," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(3), pages 653-674, September.
    12. Hans Jakob Walnum & Carlo Aall & Søren Løkke, 2014. "Can Rebound Effects Explain Why Sustainable Mobility Has Not Been Achieved?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-28, December.
    13. Tønnesen, Anders, 2015. "Policy packages and state engagement: Comparing car-use reduction policy in two Norwegian cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 89-98.
    14. Gonzales, Eric Justin, 2011. "Allocation of Space and the Costs of Multimodal Transport in Cities," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7s28n4nj, University of California Transportation Center.
    15. Zhang, Fangni & Yang, Hai & Liu, Wei, 2014. "The Downs–Thomson Paradox with responsive transit service," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 244-263.
    16. Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2020. "Urban land use and transportation planning for climate change mitigation: A theoretical framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 604-616.
    17. Gonzales, Eric Justin, 2011. "Allocation of Space and the Costs of Multimodal Transport in Cities," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt07x7h9pg, University of California Transportation Center.
    18. Tapio, Petri, 2005. "Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 137-151, March.

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