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Self-reinforcing motorization: can travel demand management take us out of the social trap?

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  • Kitamura, R.
  • Nakayama, S.
  • Yamamoto, T.

Abstract

Motorization is a self-reinforcing process, which involves positive feedback. Using a simple model of bi-modal transportation system, it is shown that a transportation system may eventually be dominated by the automobile, or may equilibrate at a grossly inefficient point due to social dilemmas associated with automobile use. Furthermore, in areas with well-developed public transit, road capacity addition can be detrimental not only to the public transit but also to the automotive transportation. Travel demand management (TDM) measures are conceived in this study as mechanisms to prevent the divergence of the motorization process away from a social optimum due to its positive feedback and social dilemmas. A simple model of bi-modal transportation system and a cellular automata model of individuals' TDM compliance behavior are combined in the study to see how TDM measures that rely on individuals' voluntary cooperation may be effective. Results of simulation analyses based on the model are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitamura, R. & Nakayama, S. & Yamamoto, T., 1999. "Self-reinforcing motorization: can travel demand management take us out of the social trap?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 135-145, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:6:y:1999:i:3:p:135-145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mogridge, Martin J H, 1997. "The self-defeating nature of urban road capacity policy : A review of theories, disputes and available evidence," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 5-23, January.
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    1. Michael J. Clay * & Patricia L. Mokhtarian, 2004. "Personal travel management: the adoption and consideration of travel-related strategies," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 181-209, June.
    2. Gärling, Tommy & Eek, Daniel & Loukopoulos, Peter & Fujii, Satoshi & Johansson-Stenman, Olof & Kitamura, Ryuichi & Pendyala, Ram & Vilhelmson, Bertil, 2002. "A conceptual analysis of the impact of travel demand management on private car use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 59-70, January.
    3. Sunitiyoso, Yos & Matsumoto, Shoji, 2009. "Modelling a social dilemma of mode choice based on commuters' expectations and social learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 193(3), pages 904-914, March.
    4. Combs, Tabitha S. & Rodríguez, Daniel A., 2014. "Joint impacts of Bus Rapid Transit and urban form on vehicle ownership: New evidence from a quasi-longitudinal analysis in Bogotá, Colombia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 272-285.
    5. Sunitiyoso, Yos & Avineri, Erel & Chatterjee, Kiron, 2013. "Dynamic modelling of travellers’ social interactions and social learning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 258-266.
    6. Pandey, Ayush & Lehe, Lewis J., 2024. "Congestive mode-switching and economies of scale on a bus route," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    7. Jakobsson, C. & Fujii, S. & Gärling, T., 2000. "Determinants of private car users' acceptance of road pricing," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 153-158, April.
    8. Gonzales, Eric Justin, 2011. "Allocation of Space and the Costs of Multimodal Transport in Cities," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7s28n4nj, University of California Transportation Center.
    9. Avineri, Erel, 2012. "On the use and potential of behavioural economics from the perspective of transport and climate change," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 512-521.
    10. Gonzales, Eric Justin, 2011. "Allocation of Space and the Costs of Multimodal Transport in Cities," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt07x7h9pg, University of California Transportation Center.

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