IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/netspa/v6y2006i2p135-148.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparisons of Urban Travel Forecasts Prepared with the Sequential Procedure and a Combined Model

Author

Listed:
  • Justin Siegel
  • Joaquín Cea
  • José Fernández
  • Renán Rodriguez
  • David Boyce

Abstract

Detailed analyses and comparisons of urban travel forecasts prepared by applying the state-of-practice sequential procedure and the solution of a combined network equilibrium model are presented. The sequential procedure for solving the trip distribution, mode choice and assignment problems with feedback is the current practice in most transportation planning agencies, although its important limitations are well known. The solution of a combined model, in contrast, results from a single mathematical formulation, which ensures a well-converged and consistent result. Using a real network, several methods for solving the sequential procedure with feedback are compared to the solution of the combined model ESTRAUS. The results of these methods are shown to have various levels of instability. The paper concludes with a call for a new paradigm of travel forecasting practice based on an internally consistent model formulation that can be solved to a level of precision suitable for comparing alternative scenarios. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Siegel & Joaquín Cea & José Fernández & Renán Rodriguez & David Boyce, 2006. "Comparisons of Urban Travel Forecasts Prepared with the Sequential Procedure and a Combined Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 135-148, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:135-148
    DOI: 10.1007/s11067-006-7697-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11067-006-7697-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11067-006-7697-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Florian & Sang Nguyen & Jacques Ferland, 1975. "On the Combined Distribution-Assignment of Traffic," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 43-53, February.
    2. K. Nabil Ali Safwat & Thomas L. Magnanti, 1988. "A Combined Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Modal Split, and Trip Assignment Model," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 14-30, February.
    3. Williams, H. C. W. L. & Lam, W. M., 1991. "Transport policy appraisal with equilibrium models I: Generated traffic and highway investment benefits," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 253-279, October.
    4. Lam, William H. K. & Huang, Hai-Jun, 1992. "A combined trip distribution and assignment model for multiple user classes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 275-287, August.
    5. T. Abrahamsson & L. Lundqvist, 1999. "Formulation and Estimation of Combined Network Equilibrium Models with Applications to Stockholm," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 80-100, February.
    6. David Boyce & Hillel Bar–Gera, 2003. "Validation of Multiclass Urban Travel Forecasting Models Combining Origin–Destination, Mode, and Route Choices," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 517-540, August.
    7. Williams, H. C. W. L. & Lai, H. S., 1991. "Transport policy appraisal with equilibrium models II: Model dependence of highway investment benefits," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 281-292, October.
    8. Williams, H. C. W. L. & Lam, W. M. & Austin, J. & Kim, K. S., 1991. "Transport policy appraisal with equilibrium models III: Investment benefits in multi-modal systems," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 293-316, October.
    9. Mustafa Abdulaal & Larry J. LeBlanc, 1979. "Methods for Combining Modal Split and Equilibrium Assignment Models," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(4), pages 292-314, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Newman & Vincent Bernardin, 2010. "Hierarchical ordering of nests in a joint mode and destination choice model," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 677-688, July.
    2. Ibeas, Angel & dell’Olio, Luigi & Montequín, Rosa Barreda, 2011. "Citizen involvement in promoting sustainable mobility," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 475-487.
    3. Seungkyu Ryu & Anthony Chen & Xiangdong Xu & Keechoo Choi, 2014. "A Dual Approach for Solving the Combined Distribution and Assignment Problem with Link Capacity Constraints," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 245-270, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Boyce, 2007. "Forecasting Travel on Congested Urban Transportation Networks: Review and Prospects for Network Equilibrium Models," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 99-128, June.
    2. Cantarella, Giulio Erberto & Cartenì, Armando & de Luca, Stefano, 2015. "Stochastic equilibrium assignment with variable demand: Theoretical and implementation issues," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(2), pages 330-347.
    3. Yao, Jia & Chen, Anthony & Ryu, Seungkyu & Shi, Feng, 2014. "A general unconstrained optimization formulation for the combined distribution and assignment problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 137-160.
    4. Lam, William H. K. & Tam, M. L., 1997. "Why standard modelling and evaluation procedures are inadequate for assessing traffic congestion measures," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 217-223, October.
    5. Boyce, David, 2007. "Future research on urban transportation network modeling," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 472-481, July.
    6. Zhou, Zhong & Chen, Anthony & Wong, S.C., 2009. "Alternative formulations of a combined trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, and trip assignment model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 129-138, October.
    7. Joaquín De Cea & J. Enrique Fernández & Valérie Dekock & Alexandra Soto, 2004. "Solving network equilibrium problems on multimodal urban transportation networks with multiple user classes," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 293-317, January.
    8. Jingni Song & Feng Chen & Qunqi Wu & Weiyu Liu & Feiyang Xue & Kai Du, 2019. "Optimization of Passenger Transportation Corridor Mode Supply Structure in Regional Comprehensive Transport Considering Economic Equilibrium," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.
    9. Ampol Karoonsoontawong & Dung-Ying Lin, 2015. "Combined Gravity Model Trip Distribution and Paired Combinatorial Logit Stochastic User Equilibrium Problem," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 1011-1048, December.
    10. Lam, William H.K. & Li, Zhi-Chun & Huang, Hai-Jun & Wong, S.C., 2006. "Modeling time-dependent travel choice problems in road networks with multiple user classes and multiple parking facilities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 368-395, June.
    11. Xu, Meng & Chen, Anthony & Gao, Ziyou, 2008. "An improved origin-based algorithm for solving the combined distribution and assignment problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 354-369, July.
    12. Ho, H.W. & Wong, S.C. & Loo, Becky P.Y., 2006. "Combined distribution and assignment model for a continuum traffic equilibrium problem with multiple user classes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 633-650, September.
    13. Mori, Kentaro & Miwa, Tomio & Abe, Ryosuke & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2022. "Equilibrium analysis of trip demand for autonomous taxi services in Nagoya, Japan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 476-498.
    14. Felipe González & Carlos Melo-Riquelme & Louis Grange, 2016. "A combined destination and route choice model for a bicycle sharing system," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 407-423, May.
    15. Kitthamkesorn, Songyot & Chen, Anthony, 2017. "Alternate weibit-based model for assessing green transport systems with combined mode and route travel choices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 291-310.
    16. Tao Zhang & Yang Yang & Gang Cheng & Minjie Jin, 2020. "A Practical Traffic Assignment Model for Multimodal Transport System Considering Low-Mobility Groups," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony & Xu, Xiangdong & Wong, S.C., 2013. "Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 225-244.
    18. Yao, Jia & Chen, Yanqin & Chen, Anthony & Liu, Zhiyuan, 2024. "Modeling link capacity constraints with physical queuing and toll in the bi-modal mixed road network including bus and car modes," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Kidokoro, Yukihiro, 2006. "Benefit estimation of transport projects--a representative consumer approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 521-542, August.
    20. Chen, Anthony & Choi, Keechoo, 2017. "Solving the combined modal split and traffic assignment problem with two types of transit impedance functionAuthor-Name: Ryu, Seungkyu," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(3), pages 870-880.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:135-148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.