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The dynamics of modal split for freight transport

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  • Ferrari, Paolo

Abstract

The paper presents a dynamic model of modal split in a multimodal freight transport system, which supposes that the evolution over time of transport demand is accompanied by a corresponding evolution of transport modes, and that users react with delay to cost variations. Starting with these hypotheses, and following the paradigm of random utility, a recursive equation is obtained, whose iterated application furnishes the sequence of the demand fractions on the various transport modes in the successive epochs of the time period during which the evolution of the transport system is studied and enables forecasting the future modal split evolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrari, Paolo, 2014. "The dynamics of modal split for freight transport," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 163-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:70:y:2014:i:c:p:163-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2014.07.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Yitao & Jia, Bin & Yan, Xiao-Yong & Zhi, Danyue & Song, Dongdong & Chen, Yan & de Bok, Michiel & Tavasszy, Lóránt A. & Gao, Ziyou, 2023. "Uncovering and modeling the hierarchical organization of urban heavy truck flows," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    2. Sinem Tokcaer & Özgür Özpeynirci, 2018. "A bi-objective multimodal transportation planning problem with an application to a petrochemical ethylene manufacturer," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(1), pages 72-88, March.
    3. Ferrari, Paolo, 2018. "Some necessary conditions for the success of innovations in rail freight transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 747-758.
    4. Ferrari, Paolo, 2015. "Dynamic cost functions and freight transport modal split evolution," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 115-134.
    5. Tavasszy, Lóránt A., 2020. "Predicting the effects of logistics innovations on freight systems: Directions for research," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-6.
    6. Cassiano A. Isler & Yesid Asaff & Marin Marinov, 2020. "Designing a Geo-Strategic Railway Freight Network in Brazil Using GIS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Ferrari, Paolo, 2016. "Instability and dynamic cost elasticities in freight transport systems," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 226-233.

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