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Persistence Effects in a Dynamic Discrete Choice Model - Application to Low-End Computer Servers

Author

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  • Szabolcs Lorincz

    (University of Toulouse (GREMAQ – MPSE))

Abstract

The paper introduces preference persistence into a dynamic discrete choice model of demand for durables. This persistence may arise, for example, when the products can be categorized into a few number of formats, which involve special knowledge, maintenance and upgrade. The standard optimal stopping problem of when to buy a new product is completed by the upgrade problem. Customers who already have a product may choose to upgrade it, but this upgrade is format specific. Hence, the expected future upgrade qualities of different formats must be taken into account already at the purchase decision of a new product. The model is estimated on a data set of low-end computer servers, where formats are represented by operating systems. For this application, the model can be considered as a proxy of a computer network building customer who cares not only about the likely future quality of the individual computers, but also about the direction of evolution of the network. That induces even stronger forward looking behavior than a simple optimal stopping problem. The results suggest that the model is better able to capture main tendencies in the segment than a static or a simple optimal stopping model.

Suggested Citation

  • Szabolcs Lorincz, 2005. "Persistence Effects in a Dynamic Discrete Choice Model - Application to Low-End Computer Servers," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0510, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:0510
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    File URL: http://econ.core.hu/doc/dp/dp/mtdp0510.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    2. Cinzia Cirillo & Renting Xu & Fabian Bastin, 2016. "A Dynamic Formulation for Car Ownership Modeling," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 322-335, February.
    3. Ferrari, Paolo, 2014. "The dynamics of modal split for freight transport," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 163-176.
    4. Liu, Yan & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2018. "A generalized dynamic discrete choice model for green vehicle adoption," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 288-302.
    5. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 2009. "Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games Using the Nested Pseudo Likelihood Algorithm: Code and Application," MPRA Paper 17329, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    preference persistence; differentiated durables; Markov process; computer servers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • L63 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Microelectronics; Computers; Communications Equipment

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