Optimality study of China’s crude oil imports through China Pakistan economic corridor using fuzzy TOPSIS and Cost-Benefit analysis

With China's increasing role in the international political arena, it needs to focus on the diversification of its energy import routes. China is heavily reliant on importing fossil fuels for its industrial and domestic needs, and its traditional trade routes are vulnerable to political, logistical, and security disadvantages. China has been importing from American, African, and Middle Eastern countries through Myanmar's and Eastern China's seaports. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), if utilized for the crude oil imports, can become a viable alternative, and may result in the reduction of the vulnerabilities faced by existing routes. To assess this proposition, this study has focused on identifying China’s most optimal route for crude oil import through a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) technique; Fuzzy-TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution). Furthermore, to confirm the economic viability of the CPEC route, its Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has also been performed. Besides, Fuzzy TOPSIS has been used to identify the best transport mechanism from the CPEC’s seaports till Western China. MCDM criteria in both cases include time, economic costs, energy consumption, environmental emissions, and security risks. Results indicate that the maritime route, passing through Myanmar is the most optimal route, followed by the CPEC route. Both these routes are prioritised over the traditional route which passes through Eastern China seaports.