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A statistical method for estimating predictable differences between daily traffic flow profiles

Author

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  • Crawford, F.
  • Watling, D.P.
  • Connors, R.D.

Abstract

It is well known that traffic flows in road networks may vary not only within the day but also between days. Existing models including day-to-day variability usually represent all variability as unpredictable fluctuations. In reality, however, some of the differences in flows on a road may be predictable for transport planners with access to historical data. For example, flow profiles may be systematically different on Mondays compared to Fridays due to predictable differences in underlying activity patterns. By identifying days of the week or times of year where flows are predictably different, models can be developed or model inputs can be amended (in the case of day-to-day dynamical models) to test the robustness of proposed policies or to inform the development of policies which vary according to these predictably different day types. Such policies could include time-of-day varying congestion charges that themselves vary by day of the week or season, or targeting public transport provision so that timetables are more responsive to the day of the week and seasonal needs of travellers. A statistical approach is presented for identifying systematic variations in daily traffic flow profiles based on known explanatory factors such as the day of the week and the season. In order to examine day-to-day variability whilst also considering within-day dynamics, the distribution of flows throughout a day are analysed using Functional Linear Models. F-type tests for functional data are then used to compare alternative model specifications for the predictable variability. The output of the method is an average flow profile for each predictably different day type, which could include day of the week or time of year. An application to real-life traffic flow data for a two-year period is provided. The shape of the daily profile was found to be significantly different for each day of the week, including differences in the timing and width of peak flows and also the relationship between peak and inter-peak flows. Seasonal differences in flow profiles were also identified for each day of the week.

Suggested Citation

  • Crawford, F. & Watling, D.P. & Connors, R.D., 2017. "A statistical method for estimating predictable differences between daily traffic flow profiles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 196-213.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:196-213
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2016.11.004
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    2. Crawford, F. & Watling, D.P. & Connors, R.D., 2018. "Identifying road user classes based on repeated trip behaviour using Bluetooth data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 55-74.
    3. Milne, Dave & Watling, David, 2019. "Big data and understanding change in the context of planning transport systems," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 235-244.
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    5. Zhong, R.X. & Xie, X.X. & Luo, J.C. & Pan, T.L. & Lam, W.H.K. & Sumalee, A., 2020. "Modeling double time-scale travel time processes with application to assessing the resilience of transportation systems," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 228-248.
    6. Carlos Mario Pérez-González & Jaime Mora-Vargas & Jared Piña-Barcenas & Miguel Gaston Cedillo-Campos, 2024. "Method for travel time prediction in emerging markets based on anonymous truck GPS data," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 342(1), pages 585-620, November.
    7. Agostino Torti & Marika Arena & Giovanni Azzone & Piercesare Secchi & Simone Vantini, 2022. "Bridge closure in the road network of Lombardy: a spatio-temporal analysis of the socio-economic impacts," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(4), pages 901-923, October.
    8. Zang, Zhaoqi & Xu, Xiangdong & Yang, Chao & Chen, Anthony, 2018. "A closed-form estimation of the travel time percentile function for characterizing travel time reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 228-247.

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