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Airline delay propagation: A simple method for measuring its extent and determinants

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  • Brueckner, Jan K.
  • Czerny, Achim I.
  • Gaggero, Alberto A.

Abstract

This paper offers a simple approach for identifying propagated departure delays and measuring their contribution to arrival delays. Under our approach, a propagated departure delay occurs when the arrival delay of the inbound flight exceeds the subsequent flight’s ground buffer. The size (or frequency) of such propagated delays relative to the size (or frequency) of arrival delays then measures the contribution of propagated delays to late arrivals. This approach differs from earlier attempts to quantify the contribution of delay propagation since it focuses on an individual flight and its immediate predecessor, without attempting to trace the sources of delay propagation back through the entire sequence of prior flights. The paper’s empirical results show that the contribution of propagated departure delays to arrival delays depends on several key determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Brueckner, Jan K. & Czerny, Achim I. & Gaggero, Alberto A., 2022. "Airline delay propagation: A simple method for measuring its extent and determinants," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 55-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:162:y:2022:i:c:p:55-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2022.05.003
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    1. Brueckner, Jan K. & Czerny, Achim I. & Gaggero, Alberto A., 2021. "Airline mitigation of propagated delays via schedule buffers: Theory and empirics," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Chu, Ziyan & Zhou, Yichen Christy, 2023. "The effect of adopting the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) on air travel performance," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Li, Chi & Mao, Jianfeng & Li, Lingyi & Wu, Jingxuan & Zhang, Lianmin & Zhu, Jianyu & Pan, Zibin, 2024. "Flight delay propagation modeling: Data, Methods, and Future opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Martina Zámková & Stanislav Rojík & Martin Prokop & Radek Stolín, 2022. "Factors Affecting the International Flight Delays and Their Impact on Airline Operation and Management and Passenger Compensations Fees in Air Transport Industry: Case Study of a Selected Airlines in ," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Tsegai O. Yhdego & An-Tsun Wei & Gordon Erlebacher & Hui Wang & Miguel G. Tejada, 2023. "Analyzing the Impacts of Inbound Flight Delay Trends on Departure Delays Due to Connection Passengers Using a Hybrid RNN Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-24, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Propagated delay; Arrival delay; Ground buffer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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