IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i4p1849-d495789.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modernisation of Regional Roads Evaluated Using Ex-Post CBA

Author

Listed:
  • Petr Halámek

    (Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, 602 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Radka Matuszková

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Brno University of Technology, 602 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Michal Radimský

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Brno University of Technology, 602 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The aim of this evaluation is to verify the telling value of the Cost and Benefits Analysis (CBA) of regional roads modernisation based on an ex-post evaluation of the investments and their impacts on the incidence of traffic accidents. A set of 144 projects were the subject of evaluation. The analysis of the actual investment costs confirmed the assumption that the majority of projects were planned with a sufficient provision. When compared with the costs foreseen for the entire set of projects, the total reduction of actual costs spent was over 11%. The investigation of project impacts on traffic accidents was based on an analysis done prior to and after construction by using the Czech Police database. The measurement results show only minimum changes in the incidence of traffic accidents in the scenario prior to and after project completion. This however strongly contradicts the project goals declared, because the projects were anticipating almost zero accidents with a fatality and a 50% reduction of accidents with health consequences. However, a slight increase in road fatalities and in light and serious injuries was measured. These facts have a significant impact on the Net Present Value (NPV) and the weighted profitability index for the entire set of projects dropped from 16.7% to −2.8%. The key recommendation is to eliminate the impact on traffic accidents in the case of project evaluations processed ex-ante for projects focused only on a reconstruction or modernisation of existing roads.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Halámek & Radka Matuszková & Michal Radimský, 2021. "Modernisation of Regional Roads Evaluated Using Ex-Post CBA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:1849-:d:495789
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/4/1849/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/4/1849/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boardman, Anthony E. & Mallery, Wendy L. & Vining, Aidan R., 1994. "Learning from ex ante/ex post cost-benefit comparisons: the coquihalla highway example," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 69-84.
    2. Odeck, James, 2004. "Cost overruns in road construction--what are their sizes and determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-53, January.
    3. Morten Skou Nicolaisen & Patrick A. Driscoll, 2016. "An International Review of Ex-Post Project Evaluation Schemes in the Transport Sector," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-33, March.
    4. Lord, Dominique & Mannering, Fred, 2010. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 291-305, June.
    5. Knudsen, Daniel C., 2000. "Shift-share analysis: further examination of models for the description of economic change," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 177-198, September.
    6. Odeck, James, 2014. "Do reforms reduce the magnitudes of cost overruns in road projects? Statistical evidence from Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-79.
    7. Odeck, James & Kjerkreit, Anne, 2019. "The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation: An ex-post evaluation of road projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 277-294.
    8. Massimo Florio & Silvia Vignetti, 2013. "The use of ex post Cost-Benefit Analysis to assess the long-term effects of Major Infrastructure Projects," Working Papers 201302, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Odeck, James & Kjerkreit, Anne, 2019. "The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation: An ex-post evaluation of road projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 277-294.
    2. Chong, Uven & Hopkins, Omar, 2016. "An international experience on the evolution of road costs during the project life cycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 60-66.
    3. Abeysekara, Baudhi & Perera, Piyaruwan & Chhipi Shrestha, Gyan Kumar & Gunaruwan, Lalithasiri & Kumarage, Amal & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Improving the capital deployment efficiency: An infrastructure investment planning process in transportation project," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Bos, Ernst & de Swart, Linette, 2024. "Towards a better comparison of ex-post and ex-ante BCA's by decomposing potential causes of difference," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 36-45.
    5. Miranda Sarmento, J.J. & Renneboog, Luc, 2017. "Cost overruns in public sector investment projects," Other publications TiSEM 51799a3e-4c78-4dbd-b330-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. James Odeck, 2019. "Variation in cost overruns of transportation projects: an econometric meta-regression analysis of studies reported in the literature," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1345-1368, August.
    7. Cavalieri, Marina & Cristaudo, Rossana & Guccio, Calogero, 2019. "On the magnitude of cost overruns throughout the project life-cycle: An assessment for the Italian transport infrastructure projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-36.
    8. Miranda Sarmento, J.J., 2014. "Public private partnerships," Other publications TiSEM c7d4c978-234c-4f88-83ed-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Munday, Max & Reynolds, Laura & Roberts, Annette, 2023. "Re-appraising ‘in-process’ benefits of strategic infrastructure improvements: Capturing the unexpected socio-economic impacts for lagging regions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 119-127.
    10. Coker, Ayodeji Ajibola Alexander, 2021. "Accuracy of in Medias RES and EX-Post Cost-Benefit Analyses: A Case of National Special Programme for Food Security, Nigeria," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314936, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Najaf, Pooya & Thill, Jean-Claude & Zhang, Wenjia & Fields, Milton Greg, 2018. "City-level urban form and traffic safety: A structural equation modeling analysis of direct and indirect effects," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 257-270.
    12. Buddhavarapu, Prasad & Bansal, Prateek & Prozzi, Jorge A., 2021. "A new spatial count data model with time-varying parameters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 566-586.
    13. Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bert van Wee & Eric J. E. Molin & Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "Different Cost Performance: Different Determinants? The Case of Cost Overruns in Dutch Transportation Infrastructure Projects," Papers 1307.2179, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2015.
    14. Cantarelli, C.C. & Flyvbjerg, B. & Buhl, S.L., 2012. "Geographical variation in project cost performance: the Netherlands versus worldwide," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 324-331.
    15. Herve Kabanda & Alex Romard & Fuze Yurtsever & Anjali Wadhera & Joshua Andrews & Craig Merrett, 2021. "Construction Time Estimation Function for Canadian Utility Scale Power Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-16, August.
    16. Khondoker Billah & Qasim Adegbite & Hatim O. Sharif & Samer Dessouky & Lauren Simcic, 2021. "Analysis of Intersection Traffic Safety in the City of San Antonio, 2013–2017," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
    17. Holz-Rau, Christian & Scheiner, Joachim, 2011. "Safety and travel time in cost-benefit analysis: A sensitivity analysis for North Rhine-Westphalia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 336-346, March.
    18. Jacques Poot & Bill Cochrane & Sandra Baxendine, 2005. "Description and Spatial Analysis of Employment Change in New Zealand Regions 1986-2001," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-57, University of Waikato, Te Ngira Institute for Population Research.
    19. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.
    20. Hugo Priemus & Bert van Wee (ed.), 2013. "International Handbook on Mega-Projects," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14791.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:1849-:d:495789. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.