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Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany

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  • Ritter, Nolan
  • Vance, Colin

Abstract

Drawing on household data from Germany, this study econometrically analyzes the determinants of automobile ownership, focusing specifically on the extent to which decreases in family size translate into changes in the number of cars at the national level. Beyond modeling several variables over which policy makers have direct leverage, including the proximity of public transit, fuel prices and land use density, the analysis uses the estimated coefficients from a multinomial logit model to simulate car ownership rates under alternative scenarios pertaining to demographic change and other socio-economic variables. Our baseline scenario predicts continued increases in the number of cars despite decreases in population, a trend that is attributed to continued increases in household income.

Suggested Citation

  • Ritter, Nolan & Vance, Colin, 2013. "Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:50:y:2013:i:c:p:74-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2013.01.035
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zhao & Jin, Wen & Jiang, Hai & Xie, Qianyan & Shen, Wei & Han, Weijian, 2017. "Modeling heterogeneous vehicle ownership in China: A case study based on the Chinese national survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-20.
    2. Ha, Tran Vinh & Asada, Takumi & Arimura, Mikiharu, 2019. "Determination of the influence factors on household vehicle ownership patterns in Phnom Penh using statistical and machine learning methods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 70-86.
    3. Robert Kudłak & Wojciech Kisiała & Bartłomiej Kołsut, 2023. "Determinanty posiadania samochodu w Polsce: wyniki modelowania w ujęciu przestrzennym w latach 2005 i 2019," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 152-173.
    4. Vance, Colin & Frondel, Manuel, 2015. "From fuel taxation to efficiency standards: A wrong turn in European climate protection?," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113171, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Manuel Frondel & Colin Vance, 2018. "Drivers’ response to fuel taxes and efficiency standards: evidence from Germany," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 989-1001, May.
    6. Nolan Ritter & Christoph M. Schmidt & Colin Vance, 2013. "How Full Is the tank? – Insights on Short-run Fuel Price Reactions from German Travel Diary Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0401, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Yagi, Michiyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 37-53.
    8. Alexander Kihm & Nolan Ritter & Colin Vance, 2014. "Is the German Retail Gas Market Competitive? A Spatial-temporal Analysis Using Quantile Regression," Ruhr Economic Papers 0522, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Kihm, Alex & Ritter, Nolan & Vance, Colin, 2014. "Is the German Retail Gas Market Competitive? A Spatial-temporal Analysis Using Quantile Regression," Ruhr Economic Papers 522, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Frank Goetzke & Tilmann Rave, 2015. "Automobile access, peer effects and happiness," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(5), pages 791-805, September.
    11. Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Vance, Colin, 2016. "Short-run fuel price responses: At the pump and on the road," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-76.
    12. Xibing Li & Jiao Liu & Jian Zhou & Xiling Liu & Lei Zhou & Wei Wei, 2020. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Road Traffic Safety: A Study Based on the ARDL-ECM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    13. Shiang-Min Meng & Li-Jen Liu & Mikhail Kuritsyn & Vladislav Pechnikov, 2019. "Price Determinants on Used Car Auction in Taiwan," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(1), pages 48-58, January.
    14. Kudłak, Robert & Kisiała, Wojciech & Kołsut, Bartłomiej, 2024. "Systemic transformation, political reforms and car ownership in Poland," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. repec:zbw:rwirep:0522 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Frances Ifeoma Ukonze & Maxwell Umunna Nwachukwu & Harold Chike Mba & Donald Chiuba Okeke & Uloma Jiburum, 2020. "Determinants of Vehicle Ownership in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    17. John Eakins, 2013. "The Determinants of Household Car Ownership: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Household Budget Survey," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 144, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    18. Diana Ivanova & Milena Büchs, 2020. "Household Sharing for Carbon and Energy Reductions: The Case of EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-28, April.
    19. repec:zbw:rwirep:0401 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Berry, Carl & Börjesson, Maria, 2024. "Income and fuel price elasticities of car use on micro panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    21. Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Vance, Colin, 2013. "How Full Is the tank? – Insights on Short-run Fuel Price Reactions from German Travel Diary Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 401, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    22. Homolka, Lubor & Ngo, Vu Minh & Pavelková, Drahomíra & Le, Bach Tuan & Dehning, Bruce, 2020. "Short- and medium-term car registration forecasting based on selected macro and socio-economic indicators in European countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    23. Prieto, Marc & Baltas, George & Stan, Valentina, 2017. "Car sharing adoption intention in urban areas: What are the key sociodemographic drivers?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 218-227.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Car ownership; Demographic change; Germany; Multinomial logit; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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