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Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan

Author

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  • Yagi, Michiyuki
  • Managi, Shunsuke

Abstract

This study empirically examines the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan between 1980 and 2009. Unique car cohort data, composed of the car age and 11 car types, at the prefectural level, is analyzed. The primary reason for examining the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan is because Japan is projected to face radical demographic changes in the next few decades. These projected changes include depopulation and an aging population with diminishing household size. This study will be the first empirical study of the car cohort model with large countrywide observations in the recent literature. This study classifies the demographic determinants into five categories: (I) longitudinal factors, (II) economic factors, (III) natural factors, (IV) social factors, and (V) other transports. Although some tendencies vary among car types, this study finds the following tendencies of ordinary car ownership (compact four-wheel drive trucks and regular and compact passenger cars). Regarding the longitudinal factors, the long-run effect is much higher than average in the recent literature, whereas the semi elasticity of car age is approximately −7%. Regarding the economic factors, the elasticities of income and fuel price on car ownership tend to be less intense than in earlier studies. Regarding the natural factors of population increase, the elasticities of population and average household size on car ownership tend to be negative. This indicates that a decrease in population and household size in Japan will accelerate car ownership. In addition, the ratio of elderly people has various effects depending on car types. Regarding the social factors of population increase, car ownership tends to be encouraged by the concentration of population within prefecture, and increased and decreased for relatively new (aged 2-11) and old (aged 12+) cars, respectively, by the concentration of population across prefectures. The former is probably due to a composite effect in urban and rural areas, whereas the latter may be a quick update cycle due to an effect of urbanization. Regarding other transports, the degrees of train and bus use tend to be negatively associated with ordinary car ownership. However, these effects are considerably small and often insignificant as in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Yagi, Michiyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan," MPRA Paper 71614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71614
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whelan, Gerard, 2007. "Modelling car ownership in Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 205-219, March.
    2. Matas, Anna & Raymond, Josep-LLuis, 2008. "Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 187-202, January.
    3. Ritter, Nolan & Vance, Colin, 2013. "Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-85.
    4. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 441-473, July.
    5. Dargay, Joyce M., 2002. "Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panel analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 351-366, September.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Blumenberg, Evelyn & Schouten, Andrew & Brown, Anne, 2022. "Who’s in the driver’s seat? Gender and the division of car use in auto-deficit households," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 14-26.
    4. Timo Liljamo & Heikki Liimatainen & Markus Pöllänen & Riku Viri, 2021. "The Effects of Mobility as a Service and Autonomous Vehicles on People’s Willingness to Own a Car in the Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-28, February.
    5. Karol Tucki & Olga Orynycz & Mateusz Mitoraj-Wojtanek, 2020. "Perspectives for Mitigation of CO 2 Emission due to Development of Electromobility in Several Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-24, August.
    6. Soltani, Ali, 2017. "Social and urban form determinants of vehicle ownership; evidence from a developing country," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 90-100.
    7. Kudłak, Robert & Kisiała, Wojciech & Kołsut, Bartłomiej, 2024. "Systemic transformation, political reforms and car ownership in Poland," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Frances Ifeoma Ukonze & Maxwell Umunna Nwachukwu & Harold Chike Mba & Donald Chiuba Okeke & Uloma Jiburum, 2020. "Determinants of Vehicle Ownership in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    9. Rešetar, Marko & Pejić, Goran & Lulić, Zoran, 2018. "Changes and trends in the Croatian road vehicle fleet – Need for change of policy measures," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 92-105.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    car cohort; demographic determinants; car ownership in Japan; car aggregated model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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