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The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

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  • Dubois, Ghislain
  • Peeters, Paul
  • Ceron, Jean-Paul
  • Gössling, Stefan

Abstract

Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and “avoiding dangerous climate change” objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of −50% to −80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.

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  • Dubois, Ghislain & Peeters, Paul & Ceron, Jean-Paul & Gössling, Stefan, 2011. "The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1031-1042.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:10:p:1031-1042
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2009.11.004
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    2. Gössling, Stefan, 2013. "Urban transport transitions: Copenhagen, City of Cyclists," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 196-206.
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    8. Shaun Vorster & Marius Ungerer & Jako Volschenk, 2012. "2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-51, December.
    9. Hall, C. Michael & Amelung, Bas & Cohen, Scott & Eijgelaar, Eke & Gössling, Stefan & Higham, James & Leemans, Rik & Peeters, Paul & Ram, Yael & Scott, Daniel & Aall, Carlo & Abegg, Bruno & Araña, Jorg, 2015. "No time for smokescreen skepticism: A rejoinder to Shani and Arad," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 341-347.
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    12. José María Martín Martín & Jose Manuel Guaita Martínez & Valentín Molina Moreno & Antonio Sartal Rodríguez, 2019. "An Analysis of the Tourist Mobility in the Island of Lanzarote: Car Rental Versus More Sustainable Transportation Alternatives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, January.
    13. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2022. "Effects of tourism on carbon dioxide emissions, a panel causality analysis with new data sets," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3884-3906, March.
    14. Paul Timms & Miles Tight & David Watling, 2014. "Imagineering Mobility: Constructing Utopias for Future Urban Transport," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 46(1), pages 78-93, January.
    15. Gössling, Stefan & Cohen, Scott, 2014. "Why sustainable transport policies will fail: EU climate policy in the light of transport taboos," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 197-207.
    16. Roberto Rendeiro Martín-Cejas, 2022. "The Influence of the Resident Subsidy on Regional Carrier Economies and the Environment in the Canary Interisland Air Traffic Network," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-15, June.
    17. Aaron Gutiérrez & Daniel Miravet, 2016. "The Determinants of Tourist Use of Public Transport at the Destination," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-16, September.
    18. Helena Sustar & Miloš N. Mladenović & Moshe Givoni, 2020. "The Landscape of Envisioning and Speculative Design Methods for Sustainable Mobility Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    19. Can Tansel TUGCU & Mert TOPCU, 2018. "The impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on tourism: Does the source of emission matter?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 125-136, Spring.
    20. Sun, Ya-Yen, 2016. "Decomposition of tourism greenhouse gas emissions: Revealing the dynamics between tourism economic growth, technological efficiency, and carbon emissions," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 326-336.
    21. Davison, Lisa & Ryley, Tim, 2016. "An examination of the role of domestic destinations in satisfying holiday demands," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-84.
    22. Juan Carlos Martin & J. Rosa Marrero-Rodríguez & Pedro Moreira & Concepción Román & Agustín Santana, 2016. "How Access Transport Mode to a World Heritage City Affects Visitors' Experienced Quality," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 207-226, April.
    23. Yalan Shi & Miaojing Yu, 2021. "Assessing the Environmental Impact and Cost of the Tourism-Induced CO 2 , NO x , SO x Emission in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    24. Paul Peeters & Martin Landré, 2011. "The Emerging Global Tourism Geography—An Environmental Sustainability Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, December.

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