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On fitting mode specific constants in the presence of new options in RP/SP models

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  • Cherchi, Elisabetta
  • Ortúzar, Juan de Dios

Abstract

We treat the problem of fitting alternative specific constants (ASC) in models estimated with a mixture of revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data to forecast the market shares of new alternatives. This important problem can have non-trivial solutions, particularly when some of the SP alternatives are completely revamped versions of existing ones (i.e., an advanced passenger train replacing a normal railway service). As there is no explicit treatment of this problem in the literature we examined it in depth and illustrated it empirically using data especially collected to analyse mode choice in a corridor to the West of Cagliari. We propose a hopefully useful guide to this art (as no practical recipes seem to serve all purposes). Careful specification of the systematic component of utility functions in RP and SP, including the ASC, serves to illuminate the true nature of the underlying error structure in the different data sets, yielding superior forecasting models.

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  • Cherchi, Elisabetta & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2006. "On fitting mode specific constants in the presence of new options in RP/SP models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:40:y:2006:i:1:p:1-18
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    14. Zaidan, Esmat & Abulibdeh, Ammar, 2018. "Modeling ground access mode choice behavior for Hamad International Airport in the 2022 FIFA World Cup city, Doha, Qatar," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 32-45.
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    17. Espino, Raquel & de Dios Ortúzar, Juan & Román, Concepción, 2007. "Understanding suburban travel demand: Flexible modelling with revealed and stated choice data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 899-912, December.
    18. Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M., 2011. "Experimental design influences on stated choice outputs: An empirical study in air travel choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 63-79, January.
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    20. Björklund, Gunilla & Isacsson, Gunnar, 2013. "Forecasting the impact of infrastructure on Swedish commuters’ cycling behaviour," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:36, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
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