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Commuter demand estimation and feasibility assessment for Urban Air Mobility in Northern California

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  • Rimjha, Mihir
  • Hotle, Susan
  • Trani, Antonio
  • Hinze, Nicolas

Abstract

This study aims to estimate passenger demand for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and analyze the feasibility of operating the system in Northern California. UAM is a concept mode of transportation that is designed to bypass ground congestion for time-sensitive, price-inelastic travelers using autonomous, electric aircraft with Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) capabilities. This study focuses specifically on commuting trips, which are frequent and considered relatively more time-sensitive than other types of personal trips. The UAM mode's feasibility is studied using sensitivity analysis of UAM demand to cost per passenger mile and the number of vertiports placed in the region. This study also explores the spatial distribution of UAM demand in Northern California, which further helps in identifying the major commuter trip-attraction and trip-production zones for the UAM mode in the region. The results indicate that sufficient UAM demand for commuting trips can only be reached at optimistically low UAM offered fares. These fare levels could be challenging to obtain given the high real estate cost in Northern California's urban regions. Moreover, the reliability of the UAM mode must be comparable to the automobile mode; otherwise, it loses significant demand with increasing delays. The results also show that the commuting flows with promising UAM demand in Northern California are heavily one-directional, with San Francisco Financial District being a major attraction. Other types of trips should also be considered along with commuting trips to generate an economically viable system and reduce deadheading.

Suggested Citation

  • Rimjha, Mihir & Hotle, Susan & Trani, Antonio & Hinze, Nicolas, 2021. "Commuter demand estimation and feasibility assessment for Urban Air Mobility in Northern California," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 506-524.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:148:y:2021:i:c:p:506-524
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2021.03.020
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    Cited by:

    1. Brunelli, Matteo & Ditta, Chiara Caterina & Postorino, Maria Nadia, 2023. "New infrastructures for Urban Air Mobility systems: A systematic review on vertiport location and capacity," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Kyowon Song, 2022. "Optimal Vertiport Airspace and Approach Control Strategy for Urban Air Mobility (UAM)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Long, Qi & Ma, Jun & Jiang, Feifeng & Webster, Christopher John, 2023. "Demand analysis in urban air mobility: A literature review," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Brunelli, Matteo & Ditta, Chiara Caterina & Postorino, Maria Nadia, 2023. "SP surveys to estimate Airport Shuttle demand in an Urban Air Mobility context," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 129-139.
    5. Coppola, Pierluigi & De Fabiis, Francesco & Silvestri, Fulvio, 2024. "Urban Air Mobility (UAM): Airport shuttles or city-taxis?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 24-34.
    6. Boddupalli, Sreekar-Shashank & Garrow, Laurie A. & German, Brian J. & Newman, Jeffrey P., 2024. "Mode choice modeling for an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) air taxi commuting service," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    7. Jin, Zhongyi & Ng, Kam K.H. & Zhang, Chenliang & Wu, Lingxiao & Li, Ang, 2024. "Integrated optimisation of strategic planning and service operations for urban air mobility systems," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    8. Annitsa Koumoutsidi & Ioanna Pagoni & Amalia Polydoropoulou, 2022. "A New Mobility Era: Stakeholders’ Insights regarding Urban Air Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, March.

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