IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v39y2005i4p325-344.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A micro-simulation model system of departure time using a perception updating model under travel time uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Ettema, Dick
  • Tamminga, Guus
  • Timmermans, Harry
  • Arentze, Theo

Abstract

Existing microscopic traffic models have often neglected departure time change as a possible response to congestion. In addition, they lack a formal model of how travellers base their daily travel decisions on the accumulated experience gathered from repetitively travelling through the transport network. This paper proposes an approach to account for these shortcomings. A micro-simulation approach is applied, in which individuals base their consecutive departure time decisions on a mental model. The mental model is the outcome of a continuous process of perception updating according to principles of reinforcement learning. Individuals' daily travel decisions are linked to the traffic simulator SIAS-PARAMICS to create a simulation system in which both individual decision-making and system performance (and interactions between these two levels) are adequately represented. The model is applied in a case study that supports the feasibility of this approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Ettema, Dick & Tamminga, Guus & Timmermans, Harry & Arentze, Theo, 2005. "A micro-simulation model system of departure time using a perception updating model under travel time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 325-344, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:39:y:2005:i:4:p:325-344
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965-8564(04)00114-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. V. Kass, 1980. "An Exploratory Technique for Investigating Large Quantities of Categorical Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(2), pages 119-127, June.
    2. Michael Anderson & Reginald Souleyrette, 2002. "Pseudo-dynamic travel model application to assess traveler information," Transportation, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 307-319, August.
    3. Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2003. "Modeling learning and adaptation processes in activity-travel choice A framework and numerical experiment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 37-62, February.
    4. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-479, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bwambale, Andrew & Choudhury, Charisma F. & Hess, Stephane, 2019. "Modelling departure time choice using mobile phone data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 424-439.
    2. Navid Khademi & Mojtaba Rajabi & Afshin S. Mohaymany & Mahdi Samadzad, 2016. "Day-to-day travel time perception modeling using an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 5(1), pages 25-52, March.
    3. Mohamed Wahba & Amer Shalaby, 2014. "Learning-based framework for transit assignment modeling under information provision," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 397-417, March.
    4. Oded Cats & Zafeira Gkioulou, 2017. "Modeling the impacts of public transport reliability and travel information on passengers’ waiting-time uncertainty," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(3), pages 247-270, September.
    5. Sevcíková, Hana & Raftery, Adrian E. & Waddell, Paul A., 2011. "Uncertain benefits: Application of Bayesian melding to the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 540-553, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koster, Paul & Peer, Stefanie & Dekker, Thijs, 2015. "Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 256-265.
    2. de Palma, André & Lindsey, Robin, 2001. "Optimal timetables for public transportation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 789-813, September.
    3. Strobl, Carolin & Boulesteix, Anne-Laure & Augustin, Thomas, 2007. "Unbiased split selection for classification trees based on the Gini Index," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 483-501, September.
    4. Janusch, Nicholas, 2016. "A note on the distortionary effects of revenue-neutral tolls in a bottleneck congestion game," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 95-103.
    5. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sardesai, Rupali, 2006. "The impact of stop-making and travel time reliability on commute mode choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 709-730, November.
    6. Wang, Wei (Walker) & Wang, David Z.W. & Zhang, Fangni & Sun, Huijun & Zhang, Wenyi & Wu, Jianjun, 2017. "Overcoming the Downs-Thomson Paradox by transit subsidy policies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 126-147.
    7. Kraus, Marvin, 2003. "A new look at the two-mode problem," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 511-530, November.
    8. I. Albarrán & P. Alonso-González & J. M. Marin, 2017. "Some criticism to a general model in Solvency II: an explanation from a clustering point of view," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1289-1308, June.
    9. Li, Baibing, 2019. "Measuring travel time reliability and risk: A nonparametric approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 152-171.
    10. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1991. "A temporal and spatial equilibrium analysis of commuter parking," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 301-335, August.
    11. Zhou, Yuyang & Wang, Peiyu & Zheng, Shuyan & Zhao, Minhe & Lam, William H.K. & Chen, Anthony & Sze, N.N. & Chen, Yanyan, 2024. "Modeling dynamic travel mode choices using cumulative prospect theory," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Chen, Hongyu & Nie, Yu (Marco) & Yin, Yafeng, 2015. "Optimal multi-step toll design under general user heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P3), pages 775-793.
    13. Itani, Ibrahim MS & Cassidy, Michael J. PhD & Daganzo, Carlos F. PhD, 2021. "Synergies of Combining Demand- and Supply-Side Measures to Manage Congested Streets," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt71j7z3wv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    14. Yousaf Muhammad & Dey Sandeep Kumar, 2022. "Best proxy to determine firm performance using financial ratios: A CHAID approach," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(3), pages 219-239, September.
    15. Anthony Ziegelmeyer & Frédéric Koessler & Kene Boun My & Laurent Denant-Boèmont, 2008. "Road Traffic Congestion and Public Information: An Experimental Investigation," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 42(1), pages 43-82, January.
    16. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Franklin, Joel, 2012. "Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:2, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    17. Yu Nie, 2015. "A New Tradable Credit Scheme for the Morning Commute Problem," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 719-741, September.
    18. Jara-Díaz, Sergio & Rosales-Salas, Jorge, 2017. "Beyond transport time: A review of time use modeling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 209-230.
    19. Vincent A.C. van den Berg & Erik T. Verhoef, 2015. "Robot Cars and Dynamic Bottleneck Congestion: The Effects on Capacity, Value of Time and Preference Heterogeneity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-062/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Jul 2016.
    20. Archana R. Panhalkar & Dharmpal D. Doye, 2020. "An approach of improving decision tree classifier using condensed informative data," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 47(4), pages 431-445, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:39:y:2005:i:4:p:325-344. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.