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Market development of autonomous driving in Germany

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  • Kaltenhäuser, Bernd
  • Werdich, Karl
  • Dandl, Florian
  • Bogenberger, Klaus

Abstract

This paper presents a model to predict the market penetration of autonomous cars for passenger transportation, focussing on autonomous taxis without a steering wheel. For this, a discrete system dynamics model was created and evaluated where the input parameters have been taken from the literature and a survey. In this survey, user demands were investigated among 873 participants. It showed that gender, age, job situation, city size and monthly income have an impact on the trust in the technology of autonomous driving as well as on the willingness to use autonomous taxis. In contrast, no evidence of an impact was found for the respondent’s education or the numbers of adults or children in the household.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaltenhäuser, Bernd & Werdich, Karl & Dandl, Florian & Bogenberger, Klaus, 2020. "Market development of autonomous driving in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 882-910.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:132:y:2020:i:c:p:882-910
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.01.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ljubi, Klara & Groznik, Aleš, 2023. "Role played by social factors and privacy concerns in autonomous vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Zhang, Liming & Yao, Xuejiao & Xiao, Yao & Zhang, Yingxin & Cai, Ming, 2024. "Mechanisms and implications of autonomous vehicle market penetration: Insights from a Markov forecasting model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 43-61.
    3. Darren Shannon & Tim Jannusch & Florian David‐Spickermann & Martin Mullins & Martin Cunneen & Finbarr Murphy, 2021. "Connected and autonomous vehicle injury loss events: Potential risk and actuarial considerations for primary insurers," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 5-35, March.
    4. Hansson, Lisa, 2020. "Regulatory governance in emerging technologies: The case of autonomous vehicles in Sweden and Norway," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Jun, Wang Ki & An, Myung Ho & Choi, Jae Young, 2022. "Impact of the connected & autonomous vehicle industry on the Korean national economy using input-output analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Yue Ding & Ruimin Li & Xiaokun Wang & Joshua Schmid, 2022. "Heterogeneity of autonomous vehicle adoption behavior due to peer effects and prior-AV knowledge," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 1837-1860, December.
    7. Mao, Wei & Shepherd, Simon & Harrison, Gillian & Xu, Meng, 2024. "Autonomous vehicle market development in Beijing: A system dynamics approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    8. Quarles, Neil & Kockelman, Kara M. & Lee, Jooyong, 2021. "America’s fleet evolution in an automated future," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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