IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v132y2020icp882-910.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market development of autonomous driving in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Kaltenhäuser, Bernd
  • Werdich, Karl
  • Dandl, Florian
  • Bogenberger, Klaus

Abstract

This paper presents a model to predict the market penetration of autonomous cars for passenger transportation, focussing on autonomous taxis without a steering wheel. For this, a discrete system dynamics model was created and evaluated where the input parameters have been taken from the literature and a survey. In this survey, user demands were investigated among 873 participants. It showed that gender, age, job situation, city size and monthly income have an impact on the trust in the technology of autonomous driving as well as on the willingness to use autonomous taxis. In contrast, no evidence of an impact was found for the respondent’s education or the numbers of adults or children in the household.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaltenhäuser, Bernd & Werdich, Karl & Dandl, Florian & Bogenberger, Klaus, 2020. "Market development of autonomous driving in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 882-910.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:132:y:2020:i:c:p:882-910
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.01.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856419306159
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2020.01.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fagnant, Daniel J. & Kockelman, Kara, 2015. "Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 167-181.
    2. Brans, J. P. & Macharis, C. & Kunsch, P. L. & Chevalier, A. & Schwaninger, M., 1998. "Combining multicriteria decision aid and system dynamics for the control of socio-economic processes. An iterative real-time procedure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 428-441, September.
    3. Jun Liu & Kara M. Kockelman & Patrick M. Boesch & Francesco Ciari, 2017. "Tracking a system of shared autonomous vehicles across the Austin, Texas network using agent-based simulation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1261-1278, November.
    4. Bansal, Prateek & Kockelman, Kara M., 2017. "Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mao, Wei & Shepherd, Simon & Harrison, Gillian & Xu, Meng, 2024. "Autonomous vehicle market development in Beijing: A system dynamics approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    2. Ljubi, Klara & Groznik, Aleš, 2023. "Role played by social factors and privacy concerns in autonomous vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Zhang, Liming & Yao, Xuejiao & Xiao, Yao & Zhang, Yingxin & Cai, Ming, 2024. "Mechanisms and implications of autonomous vehicle market penetration: Insights from a Markov forecasting model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 43-61.
    4. Darren Shannon & Tim Jannusch & Florian David‐Spickermann & Martin Mullins & Martin Cunneen & Finbarr Murphy, 2021. "Connected and autonomous vehicle injury loss events: Potential risk and actuarial considerations for primary insurers," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 5-35, March.
    5. Quarles, Neil & Kockelman, Kara M. & Lee, Jooyong, 2021. "America’s fleet evolution in an automated future," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Hansson, Lisa, 2020. "Regulatory governance in emerging technologies: The case of autonomous vehicles in Sweden and Norway," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Jun, Wang Ki & An, Myung Ho & Choi, Jae Young, 2022. "Impact of the connected & autonomous vehicle industry on the Korean national economy using input-output analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. Yue Ding & Ruimin Li & Xiaokun Wang & Joshua Schmid, 2022. "Heterogeneity of autonomous vehicle adoption behavior due to peer effects and prior-AV knowledge," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 1837-1860, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Talebian, Ahmadreza & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2022. "Unfolding the state of the adoption of connected autonomous trucks by the commercial fleet owner industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.
    3. Kassens-Noor, Eva & Dake, Dana & Decaminada, Travis & Kotval-K, Zeenat & Qu, Teresa & Wilson, Mark & Pentland, Brian, 2020. "Sociomobility of the 21st century: Autonomous vehicles, planning, and the future city," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 329-335.
    4. Nodjomian, Adam T. & Kockelman, Kara, 2019. "How does the built environment affect interest in the ownership and use of self-driving vehicles?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 115-134.
    5. Mao, Wei & Shepherd, Simon & Harrison, Gillian & Xu, Meng, 2024. "Autonomous vehicle market development in Beijing: A system dynamics approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    6. Di, Yunran & Zhang, Weihua & Ding, Heng & Zheng, Xiaoyan & Ran, Bin, 2024. "Cooperative control of dynamic CAV dedicated lanes and vehicle active lane changing in expressway bottleneck areas," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 638(C).
    7. Badia, Hugo & Jenelius, Erik, 2021. "Design and operation of feeder systems in the era of automated and electric buses," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 146-172.
    8. Nikitas, Alexandros & Parkinson, Simon & Vallati, Mauro, 2022. "The deceitful Connected and Autonomous Vehicle: Defining the concept, contextualising its dimensions and proposing mitigation policies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-10.
    9. Loeb, Benjamin & Kockelman, Kara M., 2019. "Fleet performance and cost evaluation of a shared autonomous electric vehicle (SAEV) fleet: A case study for Austin, Texas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 374-385.
    10. Becker, Henrik & Becker, Felix & Abe, Ryosuke & Bekhor, Shlomo & Belgiawan, Prawira F. & Compostella, Junia & Frazzoli, Emilio & Fulton, Lewis M. & Guggisberg Bicudo, Davi & Murthy Gurumurthy, Krishna, 2020. "Impact of vehicle automation and electric propulsion on production costs for mobility services worldwide," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 105-126.
    11. Guo, Yuntao & Souders, Dustin & Labi, Samuel & Peeta, Srinivas & Benedyk, Irina & Li, Yujie, 2021. "Paving the way for autonomous Vehicles: Understanding autonomous vehicle adoption and vehicle fuel choice under user heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 364-398.
    12. Manivasakan, Hesavar & Kalra, Riddhi & O'Hern, Steve & Fang, Yihai & Xi, Yinfei & Zheng, Nan, 2021. "Infrastructure requirement for autonomous vehicle integration for future urban and suburban roads – Current practice and a case study of Melbourne, Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 36-53.
    13. Simpson, Jesse R. & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2021. "Developing a methodology to predict the adoption rate of Connected Autonomous Trucks in transportation organizations using peer effects," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Raj, Alok & Kumar, J. Ajith & Bansal, Prateek, 2020. "A multicriteria decision making approach to study barriers to the adoption of autonomous vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 122-137.
    15. Kaddoura, Ihab & Bischoff, Joschka & Nagel, Kai, 2020. "Towards welfare optimal operation of innovative mobility concepts: External cost pricing in a world of shared autonomous vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 48-63.
    16. Gurumurthy, Krishna Murthy & Kockelman, Kara M., 2020. "Modeling Americans’ autonomous vehicle preferences: A focus on dynamic ride-sharing, privacy & long-distance mode choices," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    17. Simpson, Jesse R. & Mishra, Sabyasachee & Talebian, Ahmadreza & Golias, Mihalis M., 2019. "An estimation of the future adoption rate of autonomous trucks by freight organizations," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Nahmias-Biran, Bat-hen & Oke, Jimi B. & Kumar, Nishant, 2021. "Who benefits from AVs? Equity implications of automated vehicles policies in full-scale prototype cities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 92-107.
    19. McLeay, Fraser & Olya, Hossein & Liu, Hongfei & Jayawardhena, Chanaka & Dennis, Charles, 2022. "A multi-analytical approach to studying customers motivations to use innovative totally autonomous vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    20. Shatanawi, Mohamad & Alatawneh, Anas & Mészáros, Ferenc, 2022. "Implications of static and dynamic road pricing strategies in the era of autonomous and shared autonomous vehicles using simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment: The case of Budapest," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:132:y:2020:i:c:p:882-910. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.