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Gotham city. Predicting ‘corrupted’ municipalities with machine learning

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  • de Blasio, Guido
  • D'Ignazio, Alessio
  • Letta, Marco

Abstract

The economic costs of white-collar crimes, such as corruption, bribery, embezzlement, abuse of authority, and fraud, are substantial. How to eradicate them is a mounting task in many countries. Using police archives, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict corruption crimes in Italian municipalities. Drawing on input data from 2011, our classification trees correctly forecast over 70 % (about 80 %) of the municipalities that will experience corruption episodes (an increase in corruption crimes) over the period 2012–2014. We show that algorithmic predictions could strengthen the ability of the 2012 Italy's anti-corruption law to fight white-collar delinquencies and prevent the occurrence of such crimes while preserving transparency and accountability of the policymaker.

Suggested Citation

  • de Blasio, Guido & D'Ignazio, Alessio & Letta, Marco, 2022. "Gotham city. Predicting ‘corrupted’ municipalities with machine learning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:184:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522005376
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122016
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    1. Augusto Cerqua & Marco Letta & Gabriele Pinto, 2024. "On the (Mis)Use of Machine Learning with Panel Data," Papers 2411.09218, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime forecasting; White-collar crimes; Machine learning; Classification trees; Policy targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • K10 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - General (Constitutional Law)

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