IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v175y2022ics0040162521007794.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 pandemic as a trigger for the acceleration of the cybernetic revolution, transition from e-government to e-state, and change in social relations

Author

Listed:
  • Grinin, Leonid
  • Grinin, Anton
  • Korotayev, Andrey

Abstract

Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near future. This impact is determined by the growing need for the development of a number of areas in medicine, bio- and nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and others, which we denote as “MANBRIC convergence”. It is shown that the experience of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic has confirmed that the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin in the 2030s at the intersection of a number of medical, bio, digital and several other technologies, with medical needs as an integrating link. Among the multitude of self-regulating systems in the economy and life (which, in our opinion, will flourish during the Cybernetic Revolution) socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSSs) will play a special role. Thus, COVID-19 becomes a powerful impetus not only in terms of accelerating technological development and approaching the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, but also in changing sociopolitical (and socio-administrative) relations in the forthcoming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Grinin, Leonid & Grinin, Anton & Korotayev, Andrey, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic as a trigger for the acceleration of the cybernetic revolution, transition from e-government to e-state, and change in social relations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:175:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521007794
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121348
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521007794
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121348?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pérez-Morote, Rosario & Pontones-Rosa, Carolina & Núñez-Chicharro, Montserrat, 2020. "The effects of e-government evaluation, trust and the digital divide in the levels of e-government use in European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Paul T E Cusack, 2020. "On Pain," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 31(3), pages 24253-24254, October.
    3. Dominique Foray & Gaetan de Rassenfosse & George Abi Younes & Charles Ayoubi & Omar Ballester & Gabriele Cristelli & Matthias van den Heuvel & Ling Zhou & Gabriele Pellegrino & Patrick Gaulé & Elizab, 2020. "COVID-19: Insights from Innovation Economists," Working Papers 10, Chair of Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy.
      • Younes, George Abi & Ayoubi, Charles & Ballester, Omar & Cristelli, Gabriele & de Rassenfosse, Gaetan & Foray, Dominique & Gaule, Patrick & Pellegrino, Gabriele & van den Heuvel, Matthias & Webster, B, 2020. "COVID-19_Insights from Innovation Economists," SocArXiv b5zae, Center for Open Science.
    4. Yoo, Sunbin & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Global mortality benefits of COVID-19 action," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Cecere, Grazia & Le Guel, Fabrice & Soulié, Nicolas, 2012. "Perceived Internet privacy concerns on social network in Europe," MPRA Paper 41437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Grinin, Leonid E. & Grinin, Anton L. & Korotayev, Andrey, 2017. "Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 52-68.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Glyptis, Loukas & Christofi, Michael & Vrontis, Demetris & Giudice, Manlio Del & Dimitriou, Salomi & Michael, Panayiota, 2020. "E-Government implementation challenges in small countries: The project manager's perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    11. Piers M. Forster & Harriet I. Forster & Mat J. Evans & Matthew J. Gidden & Chris D. Jones & Christoph A. Keller & Robin D. Lamboll & Corinne Le Quéré & Joeri Rogelj & Deborah Rosen & Carl-Friedrich Sc, 2020. "Publisher Correction: Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 971-971, October.
    12. Piers M. Forster & Harriet I. Forster & Mat J. Evans & Matthew J. Gidden & Chris D. Jones & Christoph A. Keller & Robin D. Lamboll & Corinne Le Quéré & Joeri Rogelj & Deborah Rosen & Carl-Friedrich Sc, 2020. "Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 913-919, October.
    13. Moustaka, Vaia & Theodosiou, Zenonas & Vakali, Athena & Kounoudes, Anastasis & Anthopoulos, Leonidas G., 2019. "Εnhancing social networking in smart cities: Privacy and security borderlines," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 285-300.
    14. Jung, Jin Hwa & Lim, Dong-Geon, 2020. "Industrial robots, employment growth, and labor cost: A simultaneous equation analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin & Andrey Korotayev, 2017. "The MANBRIC-Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution," Studies on Entrepreneurship, Structural Change and Industrial Dynamics, in: Tessaleno Devezas & João Leitão & Askar Sarygulov (ed.), Industry 4.0, pages 243-261, Springer.
    16. Grinin, Leonid & Grinin, Anton & Korotayev, Andrey, 2020. "A quantitative analysis of worldwide long-term technology growth: From 40,000 BCE to the early 22nd century," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alam, Faizan & Tao, Meng & Rastogi, Rashmi & Mendiratta, Aparna & Attri, Rekha, 2024. "Do social media influencers influence the vaccination drive? An application of source credibility theory and uses and gratification theory," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Tofail Alam & Muhammad Aftab & Zaheer Abbas & Kamoliddin Mannonov Murodjon Ugli & Syed Asad Abbas Bokhari, 2023. "Impact of E-Government Initiatives to Combat Corruption Mediating by Behavioral Intention: A Quantitative Analysis from Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Marta Borowska-Stefańska & Maxim A. Dulebenets & Michał Kowalski & Filip Turoboś & Szymon Wiśniewski, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Daily Mobility of the Elderly Living in Small Cities in Lodz Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(9), pages 1-23, May.
    4. Vitaly Kaftan & Wadim Kandalov & Igor Molodtsov & Anna Sherstobitova & Wadim Strielkowski, 2023. "Socio-Economic Stability and Sustainable Development in the Post-COVID Era: Lessons for the Business and Economic Leaders," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Gianluigi Cisco & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2020. "Lockdown Policies: A Macrodynamic Perspective for Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8465, CESifo.
    2. Lewkowicz, Jacek & Woźniak, Michał & Wrzesiński, Michał, 2022. "COVID-19 and erosion of democracy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Kumar, Anand & Priya, Bhawna & Srivastava, Samir K., 2021. "Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 76-94.
    4. Matteo Böhm & Mirco Nanni & Luca Pappalardo, 2022. "Gross polluters and vehicle emissions reduction," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 699-707, August.
    5. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Liu, Li-Jing & Yao, Yun-Fei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Qian, Xiang-Yan & Xu, Chun-Lei & Wei, Si-Yi & Creutzig, Felix & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Combining economic recovery with climate change mitigation: A global evaluation of financial instruments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-453.
    7. Christian Moser & Pierre Yared, 2022. "Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 27-50, October.
    8. Kong, Edward & Prinz, Daniel, 2020. "Disentangling policy effects using proxy data: Which shutdown policies affected unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Chang Ma & John Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2023. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2098-2130.
    10. Wang, Lipeng & Zhang, Mengyu & Verousis, Thanos, 2021. "The road to economic recovery: Pandemics and innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Förster, Robert & Kaiser, Matthias & Wenninger, Simon, 2023. "Future vehicle energy supply - sustainable design and operation of hybrid hydrogen and electric microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    12. Cassetti, Gabriele & Boitier, Baptiste & Elia, Alessia & Le Mouël, Pierre & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Zagamé, Paul & Nikas, Alexandros & Koasidis, Konstantinos & Doukas, Haris & Chiodi, Alessandro, 2023. "The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    13. Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Mingxuan Wu & Hailong Wang & Fengfei Song & L. Ruby Leung & Xin Hao & Jiandong Li & Lei Chen & Huimin Li & Liangying Zeng & Yang Zhou & Pinya Wang & Hong Liao & Jing Wang & Zhen, 2022. "Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    14. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Ambrocio, Gene & Juselius, Mikael, 2020. "Dealing with the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic – what are the fiscal options?," BoF Economics Review 2/2020, Bank of Finland.
    16. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Xu, Dafeng, 2021. "Physical mobility under stay-at-home orders: A comparative analysis of movement restrictions between the U.S. and Europe," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    18. repec:bny:wpaper:0090 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Epidemic responses under uncertainty," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(2), pages 2208111120-, January.
    20. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Chen, Jinyu & Luo, Xianfeng, 2024. "Climate warming, renewable energy consumption and rare earth market: Evidence from the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    21. Rolando Fuentes & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Lanza & Baltasar Manzano, 2020. "COVID-19 and Climate Change: A Tale of Two Global Problems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-14, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:175:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521007794. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.