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Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Piers M. Forster

    (University of Leeds)

  • Harriet I. Forster

    (Queen Margaret’s School, Escrick)

  • Mat J. Evans

    (University of York
    University of York)

  • Matthew J. Gidden

    (Climate Analytics
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Christoph A. Keller

    (Goddard Space Flight Center
    Universities Space Research Association)

  • Robin D. Lamboll

    (Imperial College London)

  • Corinne Le Quéré

    (University of East Anglia
    University of East Anglia)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Imperial College London)

  • Deborah Rosen

    (University of Leeds)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (Climate Analytics
    Humboldt University)

  • Thomas B. Richardson

    (University of Leeds)

  • Christopher J. Smith

    (University of Leeds
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Steven T. Turnock

    (University of Leeds
    Met Office Hadley Centre)

Abstract

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Piers M. Forster & Harriet I. Forster & Mat J. Evans & Matthew J. Gidden & Chris D. Jones & Christoph A. Keller & Robin D. Lamboll & Corinne Le Quéré & Joeri Rogelj & Deborah Rosen & Carl-Friedrich Sc, 2020. "Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 913-919, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0883-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Richardson & Kevin Cowtan & Ed Hawkins & Martin B. Stolpe, 2016. "Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 931-935, October.
    2. Joeri Rogelj & Alexander Popp & Katherine V. Calvin & Gunnar Luderer & Johannes Emmerling & David Gernaat & Shinichiro Fujimori & Jessica Strefler & Tomoko Hasegawa & Giacomo Marangoni & Volker Krey &, 2018. "Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(4), pages 325-332, April.
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