IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v129y2018icp27-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Foresight by online communities – The case of renewable energies

Author

Listed:
  • Zeng, Michael A.

Abstract

Web 2.0 offers manifold ways in order to integrate community members via online communities (OCs) for innovation processes. OCs prove to be a valuable and dynamic source of information. External information sources are also important for foresight in order to be able to identify and monitor all relevant changes. However, traditional foresight methods are rather static in comparison with dynamic OCs. Thus, this study gives first insights into the use of OCs for foresight. First, based on literature, it is conceptually shown that OCs can contribute to foresight. Second, the question of how to assess the potential of OCs for foresight is considered. Renewable energies OCs are identified using a netnographic approach. One selected OC is analyzed in-depth by applying a prior developed criteria catalog which is based on Popper's (2008) foresight diamond. Each of its four dimensions – creativity, expertise, interaction, and evidence – is operationalized with measurement items taken from literature. In particular, the evidence dimension is supported by a text mining approach. Lastly, a focus group interview proves the usefulness of OCs for foresight. The findings show that OCs can contribute to each dimension of the foresight diamond and serve as an additional source of information for foresight.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng, Michael A., 2018. "Foresight by online communities – The case of renewable energies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 27-42.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:129:y:2018:i:c:p:27-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.01.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517306650
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.01.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric von Hippel, 1986. "Lead Users: A Source of Novel Product Concepts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(7), pages 791-805, July.
    2. Hand, David J., 2009. "Mining the past to determine the future: Problems and possibilities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 441-451, July.
    3. Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2012. "Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 436-447.
    4. Jeppesen, Lars Bo & Laursen, Keld, 2009. "The role of lead users in knowledge sharing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1582-1589, December.
    5. O'Reilly, Tim, 2007. "What Is Web 2.0: Design Patterns and Business Models for the Next Generation of Software," MPRA Paper 4578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    7. Volker Bilgram & Alexander Brem & Kai-Ingo Voigt, 2019. "User-centric Innovations in New Product Development — Systematic Identification of Lead Users Harnessing Interactive and Collaborative Online-tools," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Alexander Brem & Joe Tidd & Tugrul Daim (ed.), Managing Innovation Understanding and Motivating Crowds, chapter 7, pages 173-212, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Kevin J. Boudreau & Nicola Lacetera & Karim R. Lakhani, 2011. "Incentives and Problem Uncertainty in Innovation Contests: An Empirical Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 843-863, May.
    9. Störmer, Niclas & Herstatt, Cornelius, 2014. "Exogenous vs. endogenous governance in innovation communities: Effects on motivation, conflict and justice - An experimental investigation," Working Papers 82, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute for Technology and Innovation Management.
    10. Heger, Tobias & Rohrbeck, René, 2012. "Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 819-831.
    11. Lars Bo Jeppesen & Karim R. Lakhani, 2010. "Marginality and Problem-Solving Effectiveness in Broadcast Search," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(5), pages 1016-1033, October.
    12. Eric von Hippel, 1994. ""Sticky Information" and the Locus of Problem Solving: Implications for Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 429-439, April.
    13. Jennie Björk & Magnus P. Karlsson & Mats Magnusson, 2014. "Turning ideas into innovations - introducing demand-driven collaborative ideation," International Journal of Innovation and Regional Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4/5), pages 429-442.
    14. Lars Janzik & Christina Raasch, 2011. "Online Communities In Mature Markets: Why Join, Why Innovate, Why Share?," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 797-836.
    15. Rohrbeck, René & Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2013. "The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(8), pages 1593-1606.
    16. Harhoff, Dietmar & Henkel, Joachim & von Hippel, Eric, 2003. "Profiting from voluntary information spillovers: how users benefit by freely revealing their innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1753-1769, December.
    17. Fuller, Johann & Jawecki, Gregor & Muhlbacher, Hans, 2007. "Innovation creation by online basketball communities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 60-71, January.
    18. Albert M. Muiz Jr. & Hope Jensen Schau, 2005. "Religiosity in the Abandoned Apple Newton Brand Community," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 737-747, March.
    19. Hand, David J., 2009. "Mining the past to determine the future: Rejoinder," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 461-462, July.
    20. Lars Bo Jeppesen & Lars Frederiksen, 2006. "Why Do Users Contribute to Firm-Hosted User Communities? The Case of Computer-Controlled Music Instruments," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 45-63, February.
    21. Lakhani, Karim R. & von Hippel, Eric, 2003. "How open source software works: "free" user-to-user assistance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 923-943, June.
    22. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Delacroix, Eva & Parguel, Béatrice & Benoit-Moreau, Florence, 2019. "Digital subsistence entrepreneurs on Facebook," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 887-899.
    2. Herbes, Carsten & Rilling, Benedikt & Ringel, Marc, 2021. "Policy frameworks and voluntary markets for biomethane – How do different policies influence providers’ product strategies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Shan, Wei & Qiao, Tong & Zhang, Mingli, 2020. "Getting more resources for better performance: The effect of user-owned resources on the value of user-generated content," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Zeng, Michael A. & Koller, Hans & Jahn, Reimo, 2019. "Open radar groups: The integration of online communities into open foresight processes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 204-217.
    5. Proskuryakova, Liliana N. & Ermolenko, Georgy V., 2019. "The future of Russia’s renewable energy sector: Trends, scenarios and policies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1670-1686.
    6. Yang, Wei & Zhou, Qing & Yu, Xianyun & Wang, Dongpeng & Li, Hui, 2019. "How to facilitate knowledge collaboration in OCs: An integrated perspective of technological and institutional measures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 21-28.
    7. Youngjun Kim & Changho Son, 2022. "Evaluation of Online Communities for Technology Foresight: Data-Driven Approach Based on Expertise and Diversity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Gozuacik, Necip & Sakar, C. Okan & Ozcan, Sercan, 2023. "Technological forecasting based on estimation of word embedding matrix using LSTM networks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Christoph Mazur & Stephen Hall & Jeffrey Hardy & Mark Workman, 2019. "Technology is not a Barrier: A Survey of Energy System Technologies Required for Innovative Electricity Business Models Driving the Low Carbon Energy Revolution," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zeng, Michael A. & Koller, Hans & Jahn, Reimo, 2019. "Open radar groups: The integration of online communities into open foresight processes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 204-217.
    2. repec:wsi:acsxxx:v:21:y:2019:i:08:n:s1363919619500142 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alexander Brem & Volker Bilgram & Adele Gutstein, 2021. "Involving Lead Users in Innovation: A Structured Summary of Research on the Lead User Method," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Alexander Brem (ed.), Emerging Issues and Trends in INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT, chapter 2, pages 21-48, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Nikolaus Franke & Peter Keinz & Katharina Klausberger, 2013. "“Does This Sound Like a Fair Deal?”: Antecedents and Consequences of Fairness Expectations in the Individual’s Decision to Participate in Firm Innovation," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(5), pages 1495-1516, October.
    5. Ann Majchrzak & Arvind Malhotra, 2016. "Effect of Knowledge-Sharing Trajectories on Innovative Outcomes in Temporary Online Crowds," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 685-703, December.
    6. Claussen, Jörg & Halbinger, Maria A., 2021. "The role of pre-innovation platform activity for diffusion success: Evidence from consumer innovations on a 3D printing platform," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(8).
    7. Francesco Paolo Appio & Antonella Martini & Silvia Massa & Stefania Testa, 2016. "Unveiling the intellectual origins of Social Media-based innovation: insights from a bibliometric approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(1), pages 355-388, July.
    8. Goeldner, Moritz & Kruse, Daniel J. & Herstatt, Cornelius, 2017. "Lead user method vs. innovation contest: An empirical comparison of two open innovation methodologies for identifying social innovation for flood Resilience in Indonesia," Working Papers 101, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute for Technology and Innovation Management.
    9. Brem, Alexander & Bilgram, Volker & Marchuk, Anna, 2019. "How crowdfunding platforms change the nature of user innovation – from problem solving to entrepreneurship," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 348-360.
    10. Sladjana Nørskov & Yun Mi Antorini & Morten Berg Jensen, 2019. "Innovative Brand Community Members and Their Willingness to Share Ideas with Companies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Alexander Brem & Joe Tidd & Tugrul Daim (ed.), Managing Innovation Understanding and Motivating Crowds, chapter 6, pages 145-169, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. repec:eee:respol:v:48:y:2019:i:8:p:- is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Adrián Kovács & Bart Looy & Bruno Cassiman, 2015. "Exploring the scope of open innovation: a bibliometric review of a decade of research," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 104(3), pages 951-983, September.
    13. Xiao Liao & Guangyu Ye & Juan Yu & Yunjiang Xi, 2021. "Identifying lead users in online user innovation communities based on supernetwork," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 300(2), pages 515-543, May.
    14. Yang, Mu & Ooi, Yat Ming & Han, Chunjia, 2022. "Lead users as idea supplier in online community platform: How to choose the right ideas to implement?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    15. Piller, Frank & Vossen, Alexander & Ihl, Christoph, 2012. "From Social Media to Social Product Development: The Impact of Social Media on Co-Creation of Innovation," Die Unternehmung - Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 66(1), pages 7-27.
    16. Dahlander, Linus & Piezunka, Henning, 2014. "Open to suggestions: How organizations elicit suggestions through proactive and reactive attention," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 812-827.
    17. Rullani, Francesco & Haefliger, Stefan, 2013. "The periphery on stage: The intra-organizational dynamics in online communities of creation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 941-953.
    18. West, Joel & Kuk, George, 2016. "The complementarity of openness: How MakerBot leveraged Thingiverse in 3D printing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 169-181.
    19. G. Parmentier & Vincent Mangematin, 2014. "Orchestrating innovation with user communities in the creative industries," Grenoble Ecole de Management (Post-Print) halshs-00848861, HAL.
    20. Schweisfurth, Tim G., 2017. "Comparing internal and external lead users as sources of innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 238-248.
    21. Linus Dahlander & Lars Frederiksen, 2012. "The Core and Cosmopolitans: A Relational View of Innovation in User Communities," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 988-1007, August.
    22. Felin, Teppo & Zenger, Todd R., 2014. "Closed or open innovation? Problem solving and the governance choice," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 914-925.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:129:y:2018:i:c:p:27-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.