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Anxious relationships: The unmarked futures for post-normal scenarios in anticipatory systems

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  • Fuller, Ted

Abstract

This article explores organisational anticipation in uncertain times. ‘Anticipation’ is interpreted as a mediating process between knowledge and action, where ‘feed-forward’ is causal. The context for examining organisational anticipation is one of ontological insecurity; raising issues of epistemological and therefore methodological uncertainty. The paper draws on re-emerging areas of study in the futures literature especially with respect to anticipatory systems and post-normal science. Rosen's 1985 theory of anticipatory systems is not well known, though has received recent attention as part of a growing discourse on Anticipation, for example as a possible discipline and as a form of governance. For Rosen, causality is mediated through a modelling relationship between actor and environment which entails causality, not by the direct effect of the environment on the actor. The paper discusses the implications of this perspective on the role of scenario planning in organisations, which is but one of multiple anticipatory systems at work in the organisation and hence often weak in power. The argument is further developed by considering ‘modelling relations’ which are inherent to active anticipatory systems. The conclusion is that in human social systems in uncertain environments require approaches to anticipation that recognise the multiplicity of modelling relations. One approach to this has been set out in earlier work by Funtowicz and Ravetz (1993), which they called post-normal science. The paper concludes by suggesting that the epistemology of anticipatory systems and methodology developed from PNS might be used to reduce Cartesian anxiety with respect to ontological insecurities of uncertain times. This has radical implications for scenario planning as it is currently conceived.

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  • Fuller, Ted, 2017. "Anxious relationships: The unmarked futures for post-normal scenarios in anticipatory systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 41-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:41-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.07.045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Knight, Frank H., 1923. "The Ethics of Competition," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 37, pages 579-624, August.
    2. Frank H. Knight, 1923. "The Ethics of Competition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 37(4), pages 579-624.
    3. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Fergnani, 2023. "Explaining and critiquing the postnormal: A warning against ideologies in the field of futures and foresight," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    2. Gordon, Adam Vigdor & Ramic, Mirza & Rohrbeck, René & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2020. "50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Jauernig, Johanna & Uhl, Matthias & Valentinov, Vladislav, 2021. "The ethics of corporate hypocrisy: An experimental approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 131.
    4. Hakmaoui, Abdelati & Oubrich, Mourad & Calof, Jonathan & El Ghazi, Hamid, 2022. "Towards an anticipatory system incorporating corporate foresight and competitive intelligence in creating knowledge: a longitudinal Moroccan bank case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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