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Development of the scenario-based technology roadmap considering layer heterogeneity: An approach using CIA and AHP

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  • Lee, Hakyeon
  • Geum, Youngjung

Abstract

Scenario-based roadmapping has been considered as an effective means to deal with the dynamics of business environments. However, previous research on the scenario-based roadmap has commonly employed a single methodology to develop technology roadmaps, even if the characteristics of layers in technology roadmaps are different. The market planning deals with ‘external scenarios’ which are uncontrollable, whereas the product and technology planning is associated with ‘internal scenarios’ which are controllable. The former is related to the analysis and evaluation, whereas the latter is associated with strategic decision-making. This leads to the important implication that we have to consider two different perspectives of planning and have to utilize two different methodologies. In response, this paper employs an approach using cross impact analysis (CIA) and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) as a tool for scenario-based roadmapping. CIA is employed for roadmapping the market layer due to its ability to measure the impact of the external environment, whereas AHP is employed to roadmap the technology and product layers, due to its characteristics of decision-making process. To illustrate the working of proposed approach, a case study was conducted for the u-healthcare services.

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  • Lee, Hakyeon & Geum, Youngjung, 2017. "Development of the scenario-based technology roadmap considering layer heterogeneity: An approach using CIA and AHP," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 12-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:117:y:2017:i:c:p:12-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.016
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    1. Roland Broll & Gerald Blumberg & Christoph Weber, "undated". "Thesenpapier: Constructing Consistent Energy Scenarios using Cross Impact Matrices," EWL Working Papers 2005, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
    2. Yujin Jeong & Hyejin Jang & Byungun Yoon, 2021. "Developing a risk-adaptive technology roadmap using a Bayesian network and topic modeling under deep uncertainty," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 3697-3722, May.
    3. Noh, Heeyong & Kim, Kyuwoong & Song, Young-Keun & Lee, Sungjoo, 2021. "Opportunity-driven technology roadmapping: The case of 5G mobile services," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Kim, Junhan & Geum, Youngjung, 2021. "How to develop data-driven technology roadmaps:The integration of topic modeling and link prediction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. Chi-Yo Huang & Jih-Jeng Huang & You-Ning Chang & Yen-Chu Lin, 2021. "A Fuzzy-MOP-Based Competence Set Expansion Method for Technology Roadmap Definitions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-26, January.
    6. Nazarenko, Anastasia & Vishnevskiy, Konstantin & Meissner, Dirk & Daim, Tugrul, 2022. "Applying digital technologies in technology roadmapping to overcome individual biased assessments," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Tian Guan & Yi Han & Nan Kang & Ningye Tang & Xu Chen & Shu Wang, 2022. "An Overview of Vehicular Cybersecurity for Intelligent Connected Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, April.
    8. Sebastián Escobar & Margareth Santander & Pilar Useche & Carlos Contreras & Jader Rodríguez, 2020. "Aligning Strategic Objectives with Research and Development Activities in a Soft Commodity Sector: A Technological Plan for Colombian Cocoa Producers," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-32, April.
    9. Behnoosh Matani & Babak Shirazi & Javad Soltanzadeh, 2019. "F-MaMcDm: Sustainable Green-Based Hydrogen Production Technology Roadmap Using Fuzzy Multi-Aspect Multi-Criteria Decision-Making," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(08), pages 1-32, December.
    10. de Alcantara, Douglas Pedro & Martens, Mauro Luiz, 2019. "Technology Roadmapping (TRM): a systematic review of the literature focusing on models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 127-138.
    11. Isabela Neto Piccirillo & Daniel Capaldo Amaral & Maicon Gouvêa De Oliveira, 2022. "A Research Agenda for Collaborative Roadmapping Supported by Blockchain Technology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    12. Park, Hyunkyu & Phaal, Rob & Ho, Jae-Yun & O'Sullivan, Eoin, 2020. "Twenty years of technology and strategic roadmapping research: A school of thought perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. Yuya Mitake & Kenshiro Hiramitsu & Yusuke Tsutsui & Mar’atus Sholihah & Yoshiki Shimomura, 2020. "A Strategic Planning Method to Guide Product—Service System Development and Implementation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-23, September.
    14. Panula-Ontto, J. & Piirainen, K.A., 2018. "EXIT: An alternative approach for structural cross-impact modeling and analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 89-100.
    15. Eunsuk Chun & Sungchan Jun & Chulung Lee, 2021. "Identification of Promising Smart Farm Technologies and Development of Technology Roadmap Using Patent Map Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-22, September.
    16. Zhang, Hao & Daim, Tugrul & Zhang, Yunqiu (Peggy), 2021. "Integrating patent analysis into technology roadmapping: A latent dirichlet allocation based technology assessment and roadmapping in the field of Blockchain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

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