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Twelve lessons from 'Key Technologies 2005': the French technology foresight exercise

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  • Thomas Durand

    (CM International, France)

Abstract

The paper draws lessons from the French technology foresight exercise 'Key Technologies 2005'. It first describes the exercise as it took place: its context and objectives as well as the methodology that was adopted to identify, select and characterize 120 key technologies. Specifically, the paper describes the criteria used to select among the candidate key technologies, and then presents a specific tool which was developed to describe each technology (a characterization grid relating functional market needs and technological solutions to fulfil the generic need). Finally, twelve lessons are discussed. These deal with both the content of the foresight results and the methodology of running a technology foresight at national level. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Durand, 2003. "Twelve lessons from 'Key Technologies 2005': the French technology foresight exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 161-177.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:2-3:p:161-177
    DOI: 10.1002/for.856
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Richard R. & Winter, Sidney G., 1993. "In search of useful theory of innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 108-108, April.
    2. Utterback, James M & Abernathy, William J, 1975. "A dynamic model of process and product innovation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 3(6), pages 639-656, December.
    3. Durand, Thomas, 1992. "Dual technological trees: Assessing the intensity and strategic significance of technological change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 361-380, August.
    4. Clark, Kim B., 1985. "The interaction of design hierarchies and market concepts in technological evolution," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 235-251, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ville Brummer & Totti Konnola & Ahti Salo, 2009. "FinnSight 2015 – A Foresight Exercise for the Shaping of National Strategies," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 3(4), pages 56-65.
    2. Celiktas, Melih Soner & Kocar, Gunnur, 2010. "From potential forecast to foresight of Turkey's renewable energy with Delphi approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1973-1980.
    3. Tommi Gustafsson & Ahti Salo & Ramakrishnan Ramanathan, 2003. "Multicriteria methods for technology foresight," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 235-255.
    4. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.
    5. Lee, Hakyeon & Geum, Youngjung, 2017. "Development of the scenario-based technology roadmap considering layer heterogeneity: An approach using CIA and AHP," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 12-24.
    6. Shin, Juneseuk & Park, Yongtae, 2007. "Building the national ICT frontier: The case of Korea," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 249-277, June.
    7. Yongho Lee & So Young Kim & Inseok Song & Yongtae Park & Juneseuk Shin, 2014. "Technology opportunity identification customized to the technological capability of SMEs through two-stage patent analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(1), pages 227-244, July.
    8. Apreda, Riccardo & Bonaccorsi, Andrea & dell'Orletta, Felice & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2019. "Expert forecast and realized outcomes in technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 277-288.

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