IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/stapro/v216y2025ics0167715224002396.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate Hawkes process allowing for common shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Zhehao
  • Xing, Ruina

Abstract

Although the Hawkes process has been widely applied, their probability properties are difficult to obtain, depending on the model structure. This paper proposes a multivariate Hawkes process, which allows for common jumps from each marginal processes. The probability of this common jump is determined by another independent process, which represents the arrival intensity of external shocks to the system. The infinitesimal generator of the new multivariate jump process is derived. Based on that, moments and the Laplace transform are studied, which further demonstrate the advantages of this model structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zhehao & Xing, Ruina, 2025. "Multivariate Hawkes process allowing for common shocks," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:216:y:2025:i:c:s0167715224002396
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2024.110270
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715224002396
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.spl.2024.110270?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," Papers 1809.08060, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    2. Xiaofei Lu & Frédéric Abergel, 2018. "High-dimensional Hawkes processes for limit order books: modelling, empirical analysis and numerical calibration," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 249-264, February.
    3. Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2013. "Exact simulation of Hawkes process with exponentially decaying intensity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51370, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2017. "Efficient simulation of clustering jumps with CIR intensity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 74205, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Gao, Fuqing & Zhu, Lingjiong, 2018. "Some asymptotic results for nonlinear Hawkes processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(12), pages 4051-4077.
    6. Hainaut, Donatien & Deelstra, Griselda, 2018. "A Bivariate Mutually-Excited Switching Jump Diffusion (BMESJD) for asset prices," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    7. Donatien Hainaut, 2016. "A model for interest rates with clustering effects," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 1203-1218, August.
    8. Hainaut, Donatien, 2016. "A bivariate Hawkes process for interest rate modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 180-196.
    9. Zhongping Li & Lirong Cui, 2020. "Numerical method for means of linear Hawkes processes," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 3681-3697, August.
    10. Li, Zhongping & Cui, Lirong & Chen, Jianhui, 2018. "Traffic accident modelling via self-exciting point processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 312-320.
    11. José Da Fonseca & Riadh Zaatour, 2014. "Hawkes Process: Fast Calibration, Application to Trade Clustering, and Diffusive Limit," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 548-579, June.
    12. Marcello Rambaldi & Emmanuel Bacry & Fabrizio Lillo, 2016. "The role of volume in order book dynamics: a multivariate Hawkes process analysis," Papers 1602.07663, arXiv.org.
    13. Jang, Jiwook & Dassios, Angelos, 2013. "A bivariate shot noise self-exciting process for insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 524-532.
    14. Mohler, G. O. & Short, M. B. & Brantingham, P. J. & Schoenberg, F. P. & Tita, G. E., 2011. "Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(493), pages 100-108.
    15. J. M. Chen & A. G. Hawkes & E. Scalas & M. Trinh, 2017. "Performance of information criteria used for model selection of Hawkes process models of financial data," Papers 1702.06055, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2017.
    16. Xuefeng Gao & Lingjiong Zhu, 2018. "Functional central limit theorems for stationary Hawkes processes and application to infinite-server queues," Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 161-206, October.
    17. Jang, Jiwook & Oh, Rosy, 2021. "A review on Poisson, Cox, Hawkes, shot-noise Poisson and dynamic contagion process and their compound processes," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 623-644, November.
    18. Alan G. Hawkes, 2018. "Hawkes processes and their applications to finance: a review," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 193-198, February.
    19. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hainaut, Donatien & Goutte, Stephane, 2018. "A switching microstructure model for stock prices," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    2. Zeitsch, Peter J., 2019. "A jump model for credit default swaps with hierarchical clustering," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 737-775.
    3. Kramer, Anke & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2021. "Exogenous factors for order arrivals on the intraday electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Dewei Wang & Chendi Jiang & Chanseok Park, 2019. "Reliability analysis of load-sharing systems with memory," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 341-360, April.
    5. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Lu, Ye & Rahbek, Anders & Stærk-Østergaard, Jacob, 2023. "Bootstrap inference for Hawkes and general point processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 133-165.
    6. Mercuri, Lorenzo & Perchiazzo, Andrea & Rroji, Edit, 2024. "A Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-26.
    7. Dassios, Angelos & Jang, Jiwook & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2019. "A generalised CIR process with externally-exciting and self-exciting jumps and its applications in insurance and finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102043, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Hainaut, Donatien, 2019. "Credit risk modelling with fractional self-excited processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019027, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    9. Youngsoo Seol, 2023. "Large Deviations for Hawkes Processes with Randomized Baseline Intensity," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-10, April.
    10. Liu, Guo & Jin, Zhuo & Li, Shuanming, 2021. "Household Lifetime Strategies under a Self-Contagious Market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 935-952.
    11. Lirong Cui & Bei Wu & Juan Yin, 2022. "Moments for Hawkes Processes with Gamma Decay Kernel Functions," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 1565-1601, September.
    12. Buccioli, Alice & Kokholm, Thomas & Nicolosi, Marco, 2019. "Expected shortfall and portfolio management in contagious markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-115.
    13. Hainaut, Donatien, 2023. "A mutually exciting rough jump diffusion for financial modelling," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2023011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    14. Hainaut, Donatien, 2017. "Contagion modeling between the financial and insurance markets with time changed processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 63-77.
    15. Kyungsub Lee, 2022. "Application of Hawkes volatility in the observation of filtered high-frequency price process in tick structures," Papers 2207.05939, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    16. Gonzato, Luca & Sgarra, Carlo, 2021. "Self-exciting jumps in the oil market: Bayesian estimation and dynamic hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    17. Youngsoo Seol, 2022. "Non-Markovian Inverse Hawkes Processes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-12, April.
    18. Lee Kyungsub, 2024. "Multi-kernel property in high-frequency price dynamics under Hawkes model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(4), pages 605-624.
    19. Jain, Konark & Firoozye, Nick & Kochems, Jonathan & Treleaven, Philip, 2024. "Limit Order Book dynamics and order size modelling using Compound Hawkes Process," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    20. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2020. "Modeling aggressive market order placements with Hawkes factor models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:216:y:2025:i:c:s0167715224002396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.