IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/spapps/v143y2022icp285-339.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Functional limit theorems for nonstationary marked Hawkes processes in the high intensity regime

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Bo
  • Pang, Guodong

Abstract

We study marked Hawkes processes with an intensity process which has a non-stationary baseline intensity, a general self-exciting function of event “ages” at each time and marks. The marks are assumed to be conditionally independent given the event times, while the distribution of each mark depends on the event time, that is, time-varying. We first observe an immigration–birth (branching) representation of such a non-stationary marked Hawkes process, and then derive an equivalent representation of the process using the associated conditional inhomogeneous Poisson processes with stochastic intensities. We consider such a Hawkes process in the high intensity regime, where the baseline intensity gets large, while the self-exciting function and distributions of the marks are unscaled, and there is no time-scaling in the scaled Hawkes process. We prove functional law of large numbers and functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) for the scaled Hawkes processes in this asymptotic regime. The limits in the FCLTs are characterized by continuous Gaussian processes with covariance structures expressed with convolution functionals resulting from the branching representation. We also consider the special cases of multiplicative self-exciting functions, and an indicator type of non-decomposable self-exciting functions (including the cases of “ceasing” and “delayed” reproductions as well as their extensions with varying reproduction rates), and study the properties of the limiting Gaussian processes in these special cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Bo & Pang, Guodong, 2022. "Functional limit theorems for nonstationary marked Hawkes processes in the high intensity regime," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 285-339.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:143:y:2022:i:c:p:285-339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2021.10.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030441492100171X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.spa.2021.10.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chevallier, J. & Duarte, A. & Löcherbach, E. & Ost, G., 2019. "Mean field limits for nonlinear spatially extended Hawkes processes with exponential memory kernels," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Thibault Jaisson & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2013. "Limit theorems for nearly unstable Hawkes processes," Papers 1310.2033, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
    3. Bacry, E. & Delattre, S. & Hoffmann, M. & Muzy, J.F., 2013. "Some limit theorems for Hawkes processes and application to financial statistics," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2475-2499.
    4. Gao, Fuqing & Zhu, Lingjiong, 2018. "Some asymptotic results for nonlinear Hawkes processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(12), pages 4051-4077.
    5. Chevallier, Julien, 2017. "Mean-field limit of generalized Hawkes processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(12), pages 3870-3912.
    6. Scalas, Enrico & Viles, Noèlia, 2014. "A functional limit theorem for stochastic integrals driven by a time-changed symmetric α-stable Lévy process," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 385-410.
    7. Emmanuel Bacry & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy, 2015. "Hawkes processes in finance," Papers 1502.04592, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    8. Pang, Guodong & Zhou, Yuhang, 2018. "Functional limit theorems for a new class of non-stationary shot noise processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 505-544.
    9. Craig Packer & Marc Tatar & Anthony Collins, 1998. "Reproductive cessation in female mammals," Nature, Nature, vol. 392(6678), pages 807-811, April.
    10. Xuefeng Gao & Lingjiong Zhu, 2018. "Functional central limit theorems for stationary Hawkes processes and application to infinite-server queues," Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 161-206, October.
    11. Horst, Ulrich & Xu, Wei, 2021. "Functional limit theorems for marked Hawkes point measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 94-131.
    12. Alan G. Hawkes, 2018. "Hawkes processes and their applications to finance: a review," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 193-198, February.
    13. Gao, Xuefeng & Zhu, Lingjiong, 2018. "Limit theorems for Markovian Hawkes processes with a large initial intensity," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(11), pages 3807-3839.
    14. Emmanuel Bacry & Sylvain Delattre & Marc Hoffmann & Jean-François Muzy, 2013. "Some limit theorems for Hawkes processes and application to financial statistics," Post-Print hal-01313994, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raviar Karim & Roger J. A. Laeven & Michel Mandjes, 2021. "Exact and Asymptotic Analysis of General Multivariate Hawkes Processes and Induced Population Processes," Papers 2106.03560, arXiv.org.
    2. Horst, Ulrich & Xu, Wei, 2021. "Functional limit theorems for marked Hawkes point measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 94-131.
    3. Duval, Céline & Luçon, Eric & Pouzat, Christophe, 2022. "Interacting Hawkes processes with multiplicative inhibition," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 180-226.
    4. Omar Euch & Masaaki Fukasawa & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2018. "The microstructural foundations of leverage effect and rough volatility," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 241-280, April.
    5. Wang, Haixu, 2022. "Limit theorems for a discrete-time marked Hawkes process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. El Euch Omar & Fukasawa Masaaki & Rosenbaum Mathieu, 2016. "The microstructural foundations of leverage effect and rough volatility," Papers 1609.05177, arXiv.org.
    7. Seol, Youngsoo, 2019. "Limit theorems for an inverse Markovian Hawkes process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Youngsoo Seol, 2023. "Large Deviations for Hawkes Processes with Randomized Baseline Intensity," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-10, April.
    9. Ulrich Horst & Wei Xu, 2019. "The Microstructure of Stochastic Volatility Models with Self-Exciting Jump Dynamics," Papers 1911.12969, arXiv.org.
    10. Ulrich Horst & Wei Xu, 2019. "Functional Limit Theorems for Marked Hawkes Point Measures ," Working Papers hal-02443841, HAL.
    11. Paul Jusselin & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2020. "No‐arbitrage implies power‐law market impact and rough volatility," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1309-1336, October.
    12. Cattiaux, Patrick & Colombani, Laetitia & Costa, Manon, 2022. "Limit theorems for Hawkes processes including inhibition," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 404-426.
    13. Youngsoo Seol, 2022. "Non-Markovian Inverse Hawkes Processes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-12, April.
    14. Pfaffelhuber, P. & Rotter, S. & Stiefel, J., 2022. "Mean-field limits for non-linear Hawkes processes with excitation and inhibition," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 57-78.
    15. Charlotte Dion & Sarah Lemler, 2020. "Nonparametric drift estimation for diffusions with jumps driven by a Hawkes process," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 489-515, October.
    16. Thibault Jaisson & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2015. "Rough fractional diffusions as scaling limits of nearly unstable heavy tailed Hawkes processes," Papers 1504.03100, arXiv.org.
    17. Ulrich Horst & Wei Xu, 2024. "Functional Limit Theorems for Hawkes Processes," Papers 2401.11495, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    18. Anatoliy Swishchuk & Bruno Remillard & Robert Elliott & Jonathan Chavez-Casillas, 2017. "Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order Books," Papers 1712.03106, arXiv.org.
    19. Omar El Euch & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2016. "The characteristic function of rough Heston models," Papers 1609.02108, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:143:y:2022:i:c:p:285-339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505572/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.