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Exact and Asymptotic Analysis of General Multivariate Hawkes Processes and Induced Population Processes

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  • Raviar Karim
  • Roger J. A. Laeven
  • Michel Mandjes

Abstract

This paper considers population processes in which general, not necessarily Markovian, multivariate Hawkes processes dictate the stochastic arrivals. We establish results to determine the corresponding time-dependent joint probability distribution, allowing for general intensity decay functions, general intensity jumps, and general sojourn times. We obtain an exact, full characterization of the time-dependent joint transform of the multivariate population process and its underlying intensity process in terms of a fixed-point representation and corresponding convergence results. We also derive the asymptotic tail behavior of the population process and its underlying intensity process in the setting of heavy-tailed intensity jumps. By exploiting the results we establish, arbitrary joint spatial-temporal moments and other distributional properties can now be readily evaluated using standard transform differentiation and inversion techniques, and we illustrate this in a few examples.

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  • Raviar Karim & Roger J. A. Laeven & Michel Mandjes, 2021. "Exact and Asymptotic Analysis of General Multivariate Hawkes Processes and Induced Population Processes," Papers 2106.03560, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.03560
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    References listed on IDEAS

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