IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/spapps/v128y2018i3p727-755.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Conjugate processes: Theory and application to risk forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Horta, Eduardo
  • Ziegelmann, Flavio

Abstract

Many dynamical phenomena display a cyclic behavior, in the sense that time can be partitioned into units within which distributional aspects of a process are homogeneous. In this paper, we introduce a class of models – called conjugate processes – allowing the sequence of marginal distributions of a cyclic, continuous-time process to evolve stochastically in time. The connection between the two processes is given by a fundamental compatibility equation. Key results include Laws of Large Numbers in the presented framework. We provide a constructive example which illustrates the theory, and give a statistical implementation to risk forecasting in financial data.

Suggested Citation

  • Horta, Eduardo & Ziegelmann, Flavio, 2018. "Conjugate processes: Theory and application to risk forecasting," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 727-755.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:128:y:2018:i:3:p:727-755
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2017.06.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304414917301576
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.spa.2017.06.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kokoszka, Piotr & Reimherr, Matthew, 2013. "Asymptotic normality of the principal components of functional time series," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(5), pages 1546-1562.
    2. Panaretos, Victor M. & Tavakoli, Shahin, 2013. "Cramér–Karhunen–Loève representation and harmonic principal component analysis of functional time series," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2779-2807.
    3. Peter Hall & Céline Vial, 2006. "Assessing the finite dimensionality of functional data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(4), pages 689-705, September.
    4. Julien Damon & Serge Guillas, 2005. "Estimation and Simulation of Autoregressive Hilbertian Processes with Exogenous Variables," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 185-204, September.
    5. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    6. Mas, André, 2002. "Weak convergence for the covariance operators of a Hilbertian linear process," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 117-135, May.
    7. Horta, Eduardo & Ziegelmann, Flavio, 2016. "Identifying the spectral representation of Hilbertian time series," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 45-49.
    8. Denis Bosq, 2002. "Estimation of Mean and Covariance Operator of Autoregressive Processes in Banach Spaces," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 287-306, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Horta, Eduardo & Ziegelmann, Flavio, 2018. "Dynamics of financial returns densities: A functional approach applied to the Bovespa intraday index," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88.
    2. Alessia Caponera, 2021. "SPHARMA approximations for stationary functional time series on the sphere," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 609-634, October.
    3. Álvarez-Liébana, Javier & Bosq, Denis & Ruiz-Medina, María D., 2016. "Consistency of the plug-in functional predictor of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process in Hilbert and Banach spaces," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 12-22.
    4. Rodney V. Fonseca & Aluísio Pinheiro, 2020. "Wavelet estimation of the dimensionality of curve time series," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 72(5), pages 1175-1204, October.
    5. Han Shang, 2014. "A survey of functional principal component analysis," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 98(2), pages 121-142, April.
    6. Panaretos, Victor M. & Tavakoli, Shahin, 2013. "Cramér–Karhunen–Loève representation and harmonic principal component analysis of functional time series," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2779-2807.
    7. Dimitrios Pilavakis & Efstathios Paparoditis & Theofanis Sapatinas, 2020. "Testing equality of autocovariance operators for functional time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 571-589, July.
    8. van Delft, Anne, 2020. "A note on quadratic forms of stationary functional time series under mild conditions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(7), pages 4206-4251.
    9. Berkes, István & Horváth, Lajos & Rice, Gregory, 2016. "On the asymptotic normality of kernel estimators of the long run covariance of functional time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 150-175.
    10. Cerovecki, Clément & Hörmann, Siegfried, 2017. "On the CLT for discrete Fourier transforms of functional time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 282-295.
    11. Asai Manabu & So Mike K.P., 2015. "Long Memory and Asymmetry for Matrix-Exponential Dynamic Correlation Processes," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 69-94, January.
    12. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    13. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    14. Xilong Chen & Eric Ghysels, 2011. "News--Good or Bad--and Its Impact on Volatility Predictions over Multiple Horizons," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 46-81, October.
    15. Toshiaki Ogawa & Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2020. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia around the ZLB," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    16. Mehmet Balcilar & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-23, July.
    17. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Leschinski, Christian & Busch, Marie, 2018. "A multivariate test against spurious long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 33-49.
    18. Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2017. "Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2017-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Bertrand Candelon & Sébastien Laurent, 2016. "Do We Need High Frequency Data to Forecast Variances?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 135-174.
    20. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2017. "Asset Return Dynamics under Habits and Bad Environment-Good Environment Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 713-760.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:128:y:2018:i:3:p:727-755. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505572/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.