IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/socmed/v289y2021ics0277953621007450.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: The impact of government policy in England

Author

Listed:
  • Morrissey, Karyn
  • Spooner, Fiona
  • Salter, James
  • Shaddick, Gavin

Abstract

This paper aims to understand the relationship between area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases in England in response to government policy throughout 2020. The response variable is monthly reported COVID-19 cases at the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level by Public Health England, with Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), ethnicity (percentage of the population across 5 ethnicity categories) and the percentage of the population older than 70 years old and time as predictors. A GEE population-averaged panel-data model was employed to model trends in monthly COVID-19 cases with the population of each MSOA included as the exposure variable. Area level deprivation is significantly associated with COVID-19 cases from March 2020; however, this relationship is reversed in December 2020. Follow up analysis found that this reversal was maintained when controlling for the novel COVID-19 variant outbreak in the South East of England. This analysis indicates that changes in the role of deprivation and monthly reported COVID-19 over time cases may be linked to two government policies: (1) the premature easing of national restrictions in July 2020 when cases were still high in the most deprived areas in England and (2) the introduction of a regional tiered system in October predominantly in the North of England. The analysis adds to the evidence showing that deprivation is a key driver of COVID-19 outcomes and highlights the unintended negative impact of government policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Morrissey, Karyn & Spooner, Fiona & Salter, James & Shaddick, Gavin, 2021. "Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: The impact of government policy in England," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:289:y:2021:i:c:s0277953621007450
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114413
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953621007450
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114413?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Madhav K. C. & Evrim Oral & Susanne Straif-Bourgeois & Ariane L Rung & Edward S Peters, 2020. "The effect of area deprivation on COVID-19 risk in Louisiana," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Thiemo Fetzer, 2022. "Subsidising the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’S Eat-Out-to-Help-Out Scheme," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1200-1217.
    3. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    4. J. Paul Elhorst, 2014. "Spatial Panel Data Models," SpringerBriefs in Regional Science, in: Spatial Econometrics, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 37-93, Springer.
    5. J. Paul Elhorst, 2014. "Dynamic Spatial Panels: Models, Methods and Inferences," SpringerBriefs in Regional Science, in: Spatial Econometrics, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 95-119, Springer.
    6. Simon McNamara & John Holmes & Abigail K. Stevely & Aki Tsuchiya, 2020. "How averse are the UK general public to inequalities in health between socioeconomic groups? A systematic review," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(2), pages 275-285, March.
    7. Richard Williams, 2012. "Using the margins command to estimate and interpret adjusted predictions and marginal effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(2), pages 308-331, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Devlin, Anne & Whelan, Adele & McGuinness, Seamus, 2024. "COVID-19 infection rates and social disadvantage in Ireland: An area-level analysis," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS187.
    2. Albani, Viviana & Welsh, Claire E. & Brown, Heather & Matthews, Fiona E. & Bambra, Clare, 2022. "Explaining the deprivation gap in COVID-19 mortality rates: A decomposition analysis of geographical inequalities in England," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    3. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios & Stengos, Thanasis, 2023. "Dying together: A convergence analysis of fatalities during COVID-19," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Zhenhua & Zhang, Guoxing & Su, Bin, 2022. "The spatial impacts of air pollution and socio-economic status on public health: Empirical evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Vincent, Rose Camille & Osei Kwadwo, Victor, 2022. "Spatial interdependence and spillovers of fiscal grants in Benin: Static and dynamic diffusions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Qian Zhou, 2023. "Linking ecological infrastructure and tourism development through environmental governance: evidence from cities of China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 8395-8417, August.
    4. Spooner, Fiona & Abrams, Jesse F. & Morrissey, Karyn & Shaddick, Gavin & Batty, Michael & Milton, Richard & Dennett, Adam & Lomax, Nik & Malleson, Nick & Nelissen, Natalie & Coleman, Alex & Nur, Jamil, 2021. "A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    5. Stephanie Glaser & Robert C. Jung & Karsten Schweikert, 2022. "Spatial panel count data: modeling and forecasting of urban crimes," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-29, December.
    6. Maurizio Malpede & Soheil Shayegh, 2022. "Staying home saves lives, really!," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 637-651, December.
    7. Zhou, Qian & Shao, Qinglong & Zhang, Xiaoling & Chen, Jie, 2020. "Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Chen, Jie & Zhou, Qian, 2017. "City size and urban labor productivity in China: New evidence from spatial city-level panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 165-178.
    9. Li-Ming Xue & Shuo Meng & Jia-Xing Wang & Lei Liu & Zhi-Xue Zheng, 2020. "Influential Factors Regarding Carbon Emission Intensity in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis from a Provincial Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-26, October.
    10. Cristiana Fiorelli & Alfredo Cartone & Matteo Foglia, 2021. "Shadow rates and spillovers across the Eurozone: a spatial dynamic panel model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 223-245, February.
    11. Gallaher, Adam & Graziano, Marcello & Fiaschetti, Maurizio, 2021. "Legacy and shockwaves: A spatial analysis of strengthening resilience of the power grid in Connecticut," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Robson, Matthew & O’Donnell, Owen & Van Ourti, Tom, 2024. "Aversion to health inequality — Pure, income-related and income-caused," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Shuai Shi & Kathy Pain, 2020. "Investigating China’s Mid-Yangtze River economic growth region using a spatial network growth model," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(14), pages 2973-2993, November.
    14. Tang, Yunfeng & Zhang, Xuan & Lu, Shibao & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2023. "Digital finance and air pollution in China: Evolution characteristics, impact mechanism and regional differences," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    15. Sakaue, Katsuki, 2018. "Informal fee charge and school choice under a free primary education policy: Panel data evidence from rural Uganda," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 112-127.
    16. Zheng, Xinye & Li, Fanghua & Song, Shunfeng & Yu, Yihua, 2013. "Central government's infrastructure investment across Chinese regions: A dynamic spatial panel data approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 264-276.
    17. Wang, Xiong & Wang, Xiao & Ren, Xiaohang & Wen, Fenghua, 2022. "Can digital financial inclusion affect CO2 emissions of China at the prefecture level? Evidence from a spatial econometric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    18. Craig Gundersen & David R. Just & Fei Men, 2017. "Mothers' Within-Marriage Economic Prospects and Later Food Security: Does Marital Outcome Matter?," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 682-702, November.
    19. K. P. Kannan, 2022. "India’s Elusive Quest for Inclusive Development: An Employment Perspective," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 65(3), pages 579-623, September.
    20. Karl Geisler & Mark Nichols, 2016. "Riverboat casino gambling impacts on employment and income in host and surrounding counties," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 101-123, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:289:y:2021:i:c:s0277953621007450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/315/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.