IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27218.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Harrison Hong
  • Neng Wang
  • Jinqiang Yang

Abstract

We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth but firms can mitigate damages. We estimate a large reproduction number R0 and transmission volatility for COVID-19. Using these estimates, we assess the accuracy of deterministic approximations based on R0. Our model generates predictions consistent with data: unexpected infection resurgence, non-monotonic mitigation policies, and higher price-to-earnings ratios during a pandemic. Valuations would be significantly lower absent mitigation and a high vaccine arrival rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks," NBER Working Papers 27218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27218
    Note: AP EH PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27218.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    2. Fernando Alvarez & David Argente, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," Working Papers 2020-34, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    3. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    4. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Jones, Charles I., 2022. "Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    6. Douglas Almond, 2006. "Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long-Term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U.S. Population," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 672-712, August.
    7. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Dureau, Joseph & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Baguelin, Marc, 2013. "Capturing the time-varying drivers of an epidemic using stochastic dynamical systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 41749, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    10. Alexis Akira Toda, 2020. "Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact," Papers 2003.11221, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    12. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    13. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    2. Jean-Paul Renne & Guillaume Roussellet & Gustavo Schwenkler, 2020. "Preventing COVID-19 Fatalities: State versus Federal Policies," Papers 2010.15263, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Saito, Yuta & Sakamoto, Jun, 2021. "Asset pricing during pandemic lockdown," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Lee, Sokbae & Liao, Yuan & Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Youngki, 2021. "Sparse HP filter: Finding kinks in the COVID-19 contact rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 158-180.
    4. La Torre, Davide & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Epidemics and macroeconomic outcomes: Social distancing intensity and duration," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Lin William Cong & Ke Tang & Bing Wang & Jingyuan Wang, 2021. "An AI-assisted Economic Model of Endogenous Mobility and Infectious Diseases: The Case of COVID-19 in the United States," Papers 2109.10009, arXiv.org.
    6. Lin Ma & Gil Shapira & Damien de Walque & Quy‐Toan Do & Jed Friedman & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2022. "The Intergenerational Mortality Trade‐Off Of Covid‐19 Lockdown Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1427-1468, August.
    7. Mitman, Kurt & Hanley, Douglas & Bognanni, Mark & Kolliner, Daniel, 2020. "Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 15310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jiaying Gu & Yao Luo & Pedro Mira, 2020. "A Dynamic Structural Model of Virus Diffusion and Network Production: A First Report," Working Papers tecipa-665, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    9. Jackson, Paul & Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2024. "Skill loss during unemployment and the scarring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5374 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Yasushi Iwamoto, 2021. "Welfare economics of managing an epidemic: an exposition," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 537-579, October.
    12. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    13. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2021. "A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a “COVID-19” Shock [Financial intermediaries and the cross-section of asset returns]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5522-5580.
    14. Miguel Casares & Paul Gomme & Hashmat Khan, 2022. "COVID‐19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 503-539, February.
    15. Vadim Elenev & Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2022. "Can the covid bailouts save the economy?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(110), pages 277-330.
    16. Charilaos Mertzanis, 2013. "Risk Management Challenges after the Financial Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 42(3), pages 285-320, November.
    17. Sauvagnat, Julien & Barrot, Jean-Noël & Grassi, Basile, 2020. "Estimating the costs and benefits of mandated business closures in a pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    19. Li, Minqiang, 2010. "Asset Pricing - A Brief Review," MPRA Paper 22379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sewon Hur, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Of Covid‐19 And Optimal Mitigation Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(1), pages 261-294, February.
    21. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.