IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormsom/v16y2014i1p11-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Influenza Pandemic and Planning Food Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Ekici

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Özyeğin University, Istanbul 34794, Turkey)

  • Pınar Keskinocak

    (H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332)

  • Julie L. Swann

    (H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332)

Abstract

Based on the recent incidents of H5N1, H1N1, and influenza pandemics in history (1918, 1957, and 1968) experts believe that a future influenza pandemic is inevitable and likely imminent. Although the severity of influenza pandemics vary, evidence suggests that an efficient and rapid response is crucial for mitigating morbidity, mortality, and costs to society. Hence, preparing for a potential influenza pandemic is a high priority of governments at all levels (local, state, federal), nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and companies. In a severe pandemic, when a large number of people are ill, infected persons and their families may have difficulty purchasing and preparing meals. Various government agencies and NGOs plan to provide meals to these households. In this paper, in collaboration with the American Red Cross, we study food distribution planning during an influenza pandemic. We develop a disease spread model to estimate the spread pattern of the disease geographically and over time, combine it with a facility location and resource allocation network model for food distribution, and develop heuristics to find near-optimal solutions for large instances. We run our combined disease spread and facility location model for the state of Georgia and present the estimated number of infections and the number of meals needed in each census tract for a one-year period along with a design of the supply chain network. Moreover, we investigate the impact of voluntary quarantine on the food demand and the food distribution network and show that its effects on food distribution can be significant. Our results could help decision makers prepare for a pandemic, including how to allocate limited resources and respond dynamically.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Ekici & Pınar Keskinocak & Julie L. Swann, 2014. "Modeling Influenza Pandemic and Planning Food Distribution," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 11-27, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormsom:v:16:y:2014:i:1:p:11-27
    DOI: 10.1287/msom.2013.0460
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/msom.2013.0460
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/msom.2013.0460?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tony J. Van Roy & Donald Erlenkotter, 1982. "A Dual-Based Procedure for Dynamic Facility Location," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(10), pages 1091-1105, October.
    2. Erlenkotter, Donald, 1981. "A comparative study of approaches to dynamic location problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 133-143, February.
    3. VAN ROY, Tony J. & ERLENKOTTER, Donald, 1982. "A dual-based procedure for dynamic facility location," LIDAM Reprints CORE 490, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. E. Feldman & F. A. Lehrer & T. L. Ray, 1966. "Warehouse Location Under Continuous Economies of Scale," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(9), pages 670-684, May.
    5. Neil M. Ferguson & Matt J. Keeling & W. John Edmunds & Raymond Gani & Bryan T. Grenfell & Roy M. Anderson & Steve Leach, 2003. "Planning for smallpox outbreaks," Nature, Nature, vol. 425(6959), pages 681-685, October.
    6. Narula, Subhash C & Ogbu, Ugonnaya I, 1979. "An hierarchal location--allocation problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 137-143.
    7. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A. T. Cummings & Christophe Fraser & James C. Cajka & Philip C. Cooley & Donald S. Burke, 2006. "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7101), pages 448-452, July.
    8. Alfred A. Kuehn & Michael J. Hamburger, 1963. "A Heuristic Program for Locating Warehouses," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 643-666, July.
    9. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    10. A. M. Geoffrion & G. W. Graves, 1974. "Multicommodity Distribution System Design by Benders Decomposition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(5), pages 822-844, January.
    11. Christina E. Mills & James M. Robins & Marc Lipsitch, 2004. "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7019), pages 904-906, December.
    12. Hazhir Rahmandad & John Sterman, 2008. "Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(5), pages 998-1014, May.
    13. Richard C. Larson, 2007. "Simple Models of Influenza Progression Within a Heterogeneous Population," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 399-412, June.
    14. Dennis J. Sweeney & Ronad L. Tatham, 1976. "An Improved Long-Run Model for Multiple Warehouse Location," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(7), pages 748-758, March.
    15. Hinojosa, Y. & Puerto, J. & Fernandez, F. R., 2000. "A multiperiod two-echelon multicommodity capacitated plant location problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 271-291, June.
    16. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
    17. Alexander Shulman, 1991. "An Algorithm for Solving Dynamic Capacitated Plant Location Problems with Discrete Expansion Sizes," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 423-436, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Drexl, Andreas & Klose, Andreas, 2001. "Facility location models for distribution system design," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 546, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    2. Antunes, Antonio & Peeters, Dominique, 2001. "On solving complex multi-period location models using simulated annealing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 190-201, April.
    3. Klose, Andreas & Drexl, Andreas, 2005. "Facility location models for distribution system design," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 4-29, April.
    4. Sridharan, R., 1995. "The capacitated plant location problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 203-213, December.
    5. Antunes, Antonio & Peeters, Dominique, 2000. "A dynamic optimization model for school network planning," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 101-120, June.
    6. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "The benefits of combining early aspecific vaccination with later specific vaccination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 606-619.
    7. Savachkin, Alex & Uribe, Andrés, 2012. "Dynamic redistribution of mitigation resources during influenza pandemics," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 33-45.
    8. António Antunes & Oded Berman & João Bigotte & Dmitry Krass, 2009. "A Location Model for Urban Hierarchy Planning with Population Dynamics," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 41(4), pages 996-1016, April.
    9. Seifert, Ralf W. & Langenberg, Kerstin U., 2011. "Managing business dynamics with adaptive supply chain portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 551-562, December.
    10. Reza Farahani & Zvi Drezner & Nasrin Asgari, 2009. "Single facility location and relocation problem with time dependent weights and discrete planning horizon," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 353-368, March.
    11. Dupont, Lionel, 2008. "Branch and bound algorithm for a facility location problem with concave site dependent costs," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 245-254, March.
    12. Allman, Andrew & Zhang, Qi, 2020. "Dynamic location of modular manufacturing facilities with relocation of individual modules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(2), pages 494-507.
    13. Ortiz-Astorquiza, Camilo & Contreras, Ivan & Laporte, Gilbert, 2018. "Multi-level facility location problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 791-805.
    14. Xin Wang & Michael K. Lim & Yanfeng Ouyang, 2017. "A Continuum Approximation Approach to the Dynamic Facility Location Problem in a Growing Market," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(1), pages 343-357, February.
    15. Tang, Lianhua & Li, Yantong & Bai, Danyu & Liu, Tao & Coelho, Leandro C., 2022. "Bi-objective optimization for a multi-period COVID-19 vaccination planning problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. James Luedtke & George L. Nemhauser, 2009. "Strategic Planning with Start-Time Dependent Variable Costs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1250-1261, October.
    17. Vatsa, Amit Kumar & Ghosh, Diptesh, 2014. "Tabu Search for Multi-Period Facility Location: Uncapacitated Problem with an Uncertain Number of Servers," IIMA Working Papers WP2014-11-03, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    18. Lawrence M. Wein & Michael P. Atkinson, 2009. "Assessing Infection Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(7), pages 949-962, July.
    19. Alejandro Montoya & Mario C. Vélez–Gallego & Juan G. Villegas, 2016. "Multi-product capacitated facility location problem with general production and building costs," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 47-70, July.
    20. Mestre, Ana Maria & Oliveira, Mónica Duarte & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana Paula, 2015. "Location–allocation approaches for hospital network planning under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(3), pages 791-806.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormsom:v:16:y:2014:i:1:p:11-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.