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Living with influenza: Impacts of government imposed and voluntarily selected interventions

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  • Nigmatulina, Karima R.
  • Larson, Richard C.

Abstract

Focusing on mitigation strategies for global pandemic influenza, we use elementary mathematical models to evaluate the implementation and timing of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies such as travel restrictions, social distancing and improved hygiene. A spreadsheet model of infection spread between several linked heterogeneous communities is based on analytical calculations and Monte Carlo simulations. Since human behavior will likely change during the course of a pandemic, thereby altering the dynamics of the disease, we incorporate a feedback parameter into our model to reflect altered behavior. Our results indicate that while a flu pandemic could be devastating; there are coping methods that when implemented quickly and correctly can significantly mitigate the severity of a global outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigmatulina, Karima R. & Larson, Richard C., 2009. "Living with influenza: Impacts of government imposed and voluntarily selected interventions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 613-627, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:195:y:2009:i:2:p:613-627
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Policy responses > Behavioral

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