IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v71y2024ics0275531924002605.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interconnectedness in the FOREX market during the high inflation regime: A network analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed, Shamima
  • Akhtaruzzaman, Md
  • Le, Van
  • Nath, Tamal
  • Rahman, Molla Ramizur

Abstract

Our study employs network analysis to examine the interconnectedness in the Foreign Exchange market, focusing on 18 key currencies from both advanced and emerging markets from 2017 to 2023. This analysis includes a comparative look at the impact of two major recent crises: the COVID–19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. The latter is notably marked by increased inflation and uncertainty in economic policies. During the COVID–19 pandemic, we observed a significant level of interconnectedness among the EURO and 17 other currencies, indicating a dense network. In contrast, the period of the Russia-Ukraine war revealed a tendency for countries less engaged in international trade to become more isolated, as seen by their greater distance from the network's centroid. Additionally, we developed the Systemic Contagion Index, which shows a heightened susceptibility to contagion among developed economies during both the COVID–19 and Russia-Ukraine war crises, underscoring the vulnerability of developed countries' currency networks in times of turmoil. This study provides valuable insights for investors and global businesses, offering guidance on assessing currency vulnerability and enhancing their strategies for hedging and managing risks amidst fluctuating market conditions, especially during the high inflation regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Shamima & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Le, Van & Nath, Tamal & Rahman, Molla Ramizur, 2024. "Interconnectedness in the FOREX market during the high inflation regime: A network analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:71:y:2024:i:c:s0275531924002605
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102467
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531924002605
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102467?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    2. Harjoto, Maretno Agus & Rossi, Fabrizio & Lee, Robert & Sergi, Bruno S., 2021. "How do equity markets react to COVID-19? Evidence from emerging and developed countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Misra, Arun Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Mohapatra, Sabyasachi & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Network structure and risk-adjusted return approach to stock indices integration: A study on Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Rahman, Molla Ramizur, 2022. "Systemic risk-sharing framework of cryptocurrencies in the COVID–19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    6. Jozef Baruník & Evžen KoÄ enda, 2019. "Total, Asymmetric and Frequency Connectedness between Oil and Forex Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(2_suppl), pages 157-174, December.
    7. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Dionisio, Andreia & Pradhan, H.K. & Mahapatra, Biplab, 2021. "Hunting the quicksilver: Using textual news and causality analysis to predict market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    9. Fry-McKibbin, Renée & Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Qi, Lin, 2022. "Higher-order comoment contagion among G20 equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    10. Ameet Kumar Banerjee, 2023. "Russia–Ukrainian war: measuring the intraday risk dynamics of energy futures contracts using VaR and CVaR," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 324-336, April.
    11. Choi, Insu & Kim, Woo Chang, 2023. "Estimating Historical Downside Risks of Global Financial Market Indices via Inflation Rate-Adjusted Dependence Graphs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    13. Zhang, Qian & Li, Zeguang, 2021. "Time-varying risk attitude and the foreign exchange market behavior," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "Are gold and silver a hedge against inflation? A two century perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 267-276.
    15. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2017. "Asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 39-56.
    16. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Wu, JunFeng & Zhang, Chao & Chen, Yun, 2022. "Analysis of risk correlations among stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K. & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Assessing the US financial sector post three bank collapses: Signals from fintech and financial sector ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Walter Bazán-Palomino & Diego Winkelried, 2021. "FX markets’ reactions to COVID-19: Are they different?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 167, pages 50-58.
    20. Wang, Gang-Jin & Wan, Li & Feng, Yusen & Xie, Chi & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Zhu, You, 2023. "Interconnected multilayer networks: Quantifying connectedness among global stock and foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    21. Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Misra, Arun Kumar & Kumar, Satish, 2024. "A financial supply chain on corporate working capital and interbank lines of credit," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    22. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar, 2024. "Environmental sustainability and the time-varying changing dynamics of green and brown energy ETFs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    23. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Maadid, Alanoud Ali S. & Hoon Kang, Sang, 2020. "Dynamic risk spillovers and portfolio risk management between precious metals and global foreign exchange markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    24. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Did the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank catalyze financial contagion?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    25. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Paul, Manas & Bhanja, Niyati & Dar, Arif Billah, 2021. "Dynamics of connectedness across crude oil, precious metals and exchange rate: Evidence from time and frequency domains," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    26. Wen, Tiange & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2020. "Volatility connectedness in global foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    27. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    28. Li, Lifang & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "An analysis of inflation and stock returns for the UK," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 519-532, December.
    29. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K., 2022. "Intraday analysis of macroeconomic news surprises, and asymmetries in Indian benchmark bond," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    30. Liu, Chunbo & Zhang, Xuan & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Are commodity futures a hedge against inflation? A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    31. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2023. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies? The role of the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    32. Umar, Muhammad & Shahzad, Fakhar & Ullah, Irfan & Fanghua, Tong, 2023. "A comparative analysis of cryptocurrency returns and economic policy uncertainty pre- and post-Covid-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    33. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Özer, Zeynep Sueda & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2024. "How does the time-varying dynamics of spillover between clean and brown energy ETFs change with the intervention of climate risk and climate policy uncertainty?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 442-468.
    34. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.
    35. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    36. Jiang, Yonghong & Feng, Qidi & Mo, Bin & Nie, He, 2020. "Visiting the effects of oil price shocks on exchange rates: Quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles approaches," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    37. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Lucey, Brian M. & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Is gold a hedge or a safe-haven asset in the COVID–19 crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    38. Boubaker, Sabri & Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Rahman, Molla Ramizur, 2024. "On the prediction of systemic risk tolerance of cryptocurrencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    39. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Dionisio, Andreia & Almeida, Dora & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2022. "Nonlinear nexus between cryptocurrency returns and COVID-19 news sentiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    40. Mensi, Walid & El Khoury, Rim & Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Quantile dependencies and connectedness between the gold and cryptocurrency markets: Effects of the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    41. Raza, Syed Ali & Ahmed, Maiyra & Aloui, Chaker, 2022. "On the asymmetrical connectedness between cryptocurrencies and foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the nonparametric quantile on quantile approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    42. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Palma, Alessia, 2024. "Commonality in volatility among green, brown, and sustainable energy indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    43. Wang, Haiying & Yuan, Ying & Li, Yiou & Wang, Xunhong, 2021. "Financial contagion and contagion channels in the forex market: A new approach via the dynamic mixture copula-extreme value theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 401-414.
    44. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar, 2021. "Futures market and the contagion effect of COVID-19 syndrome," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    45. Aharon, David Y. & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Nor, Safwan Mohd, 2023. "Cross-country study of the linkages between COVID-19, oil prices, and inflation in the G7 countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    46. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2021. "Inflation and cryptocurrencies revisited: A time-scale analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    47. Ahmed, Shamima & Assaf, Rima & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Tabassum, Fariha, 2023. "Is geopolitical risk interconnected? Evidence from Russian-Ukraine crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    48. Gunay, Samet, 2021. "Comparing COVID-19 with the GFC: A shockwave analysis of currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    49. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Volatility spillovers and hedging strategies between impact investing and agricultural commodities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    50. Ismail O. Fasanya & Oluwatomisin Oyewole & Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Jones Odei-Mensah, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers and connectedness between COVID-19 pandemic and global foreign exchange markets," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 2059-2084, January.
    51. Rim El Khoury & Nohad Nasrallah & Khaled Hussainey & Rima Assaf, 2023. "Spillover analysis across FinTech, ESG, and renewable energy indices before and during the Russia–Ukraine war: International evidence," Post-Print hal-04564870, HAL.
    52. Dony Abdul Chalid & Rangga Handika, 2022. "Comovement and contagion in commodity markets," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2064079-206, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Özer, Zeynep Sueda & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2024. "How does the time-varying dynamics of spillover between clean and brown energy ETFs change with the intervention of climate risk and climate policy uncertainty?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 442-468.
    2. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Palma, Alessia, 2024. "Commonality in volatility among green, brown, and sustainable energy indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Volatility spillovers and hedging strategies between impact investing and agricultural commodities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Dionisio, Andreia & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Extant linkages between Shanghai crude oil and US energy futures: Insights from spillovers of higher-order moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Ameet Kumar Banerjee & HK Pradhan, 2024. "Did Precious Metals Serve as Hedge and Safe-haven Alternatives to Equity During the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Insights Using a Copula-based Approach," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 23(4), pages 399-423, December.
    6. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Connectivity and spillover during crises: Highlighting the prominent and growing role of green energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Thai Hung, Ngo & Nguyen, Linh Thi My & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility connectedness during Covid-19 outbreak: DECO-GARCH and Transfer Entropy approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Prelorentzos, Arsenios-Georgios N. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Xidonas, Panos & Goutte, Stephane & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2024. "Introducing the GVAR-GARCH model: Evidence from financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Anwar, Rija, 2024. "Precious metals and currency markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s inflationary periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    10. Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modelling the quantile cross-coherence between exchange rates: Does the COVID-19 pandemic change the interlinkage structure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Esparcia, Carlos & López, Raquel, 2024. "Performance of crypto-Forex portfolios based on intraday data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K. & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Assessing the US financial sector post three bank collapses: Signals from fintech and financial sector ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    13. Ohikhuare, Obaika M., 2023. "How geopolitical risk drives spillover interconnectedness between crude oil and exchange rate markets: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    14. Ahmed, Shamima & Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & James, Wendy & Moussa, Faten, 2024. "Is the Evergrande crisis spilling beyond China?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    15. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Assaf, Rima & Chaibi, Anis & Makram, Beljid, 2024. "The nexus between mineral, renewable commodities, and regional stock sectors during health and military crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    16. Tsai, I-Chun, 2022. "Changes in social behavior and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional housing markets: Independence and risk," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    17. Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad & HongXing, Yao & Memon, Bilal Ahmed & Ali, Shoaib & Alhussam, Mohammed Ismail & Sohu, Jan Muhammad, 2023. "Artificial neural network (ANN)-based estimation of the influence of COVID-19 pandemic on dynamic and emerging financial markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    18. Liu, Zixin & Hu, Jun & Zhang, Shuguang & He, Zhipeng, 2024. "Risk spillovers among oil, gold, stock, and foreign exchange markets: Evidence from G20 economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Le, Van & Moussa, Faten, 2024. "Hedging precious metals with impact investing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 651-664.
    20. Ahmed, Shamima & Assaf, Rima & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Tabassum, Fariha, 2023. "Is geopolitical risk interconnected? Evidence from Russian-Ukraine crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FOREX; high-inflation regime; interconnectedness; contagion; network; COVID–19; Russia-Ukraine war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:71:y:2024:i:c:s0275531924002605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.