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Comparing COVID-19 with the GFC: A shockwave analysis of currency markets

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  • Gunay, Samet

Abstract

I analyze the shockwave effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on currency markets, with a comparison to the global financial crisis (GFC), employing Kapetanios m-break unit root test, investigations of standalone risk measures—downside variance, upside risk, volatility skewness, Gaussian Value at Risk (VaR), historical VaR, modified VaR—and Diebold–Yilmaz volatility spillover analysis. Standalone risk analysis shows that the turmoil in the initial months of COVID-19 was not as severe as that in the GFC. However, examination of co-movements and volatility spillovers illustrates a different scenario. According to the results of the static connectedness measure of Diebold–Yilmaz, the shockwave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the total volatility spillover is about eight times greater than that of the GFC. Among standalone risk measures, the results closest to this finding are obtained from volatility skewness analysis. Additionally, of six foreign exchange rates, the Brazilian real and Turkish lira are the currencies experiencing the greatest increase in received volatility during the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. These findings suggest the severe effect of crises on emerging financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunay, Samet, 2021. "Comparing COVID-19 with the GFC: A shockwave analysis of currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:56:y:2021:i:c:s0275531920309855
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101377
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlini, Federico & Farina, Vincenzo & Gufler, Ivan & Previtali, Daniele, 2024. "Do stress and overstatement in the news affect the stock market? Evidence from COVID-19 news in The Wall Street Journal," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Ngo Thai Hung & Vo Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on foreign exchange markets: Evidence from an extreme quantile approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 20-32.
    3. Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Changing efficiency of BRICS currency markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1673-1699, August.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Adeabah, David & Sahay, Vinita S., 2024. "Time-varying relationship between international monetary policy and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Samet Gunay & Kerem Kaskaloglu & Shahnawaz Muhammed, 2021. "Bitcoin and Fiat Currency Interactions: Surprising Results from Asian Giants," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, June.
    6. Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Shabeer Khan & Ghulam Abbas & Mohammed Alhashim, 2023. "Novel COVID-19 Outbreak and Global Uncertainty in the Top-10 Affected Countries: Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Bhatia, Shipra & Tuteja, Divya, 2024. "Contagion and linkages across international currencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Yousaf, Imran & Beljid, Makram & Chaibi, Anis & Ajlouni, Ahmed AL, 2022. "Do volatility spillover and hedging among GCC stock markets and global factors vary from normal to turbulent periods? Evidence from the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Daniel Stefan Armeanu & Stefan Cristian Gherghina & Jean Vasile Andrei & Camelia Catalina Joldes, 2023. "Evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model on the asymmetric influence of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy markets," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1433-1470, August.
    11. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Volatility spillovers among Northeast Asia and the US: Evidence from the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 179-193.
    12. Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitris Kenourgios & Drosos Koutsokostas & Georgios Pergeris, 2023. "Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 198-211, May.
    13. Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad & HongXing, Yao & Memon, Bilal Ahmed & Ali, Shoaib & Alhussam, Mohammed Ismail & Sohu, Jan Muhammad, 2023. "Artificial neural network (ANN)-based estimation of the influence of COVID-19 pandemic on dynamic and emerging financial markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    14. Abdullah, Mohammad & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Wali Ullah, G M & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Khan, Isma, 2023. "Tail risk contagion across electricity markets in crisis periods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    15. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hasan, Mudassar & Caporin, Massimiliano, 2023. "Asymmetric and time-frequency based networks of currency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    16. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.
    17. Muhammad Naeem Shahid, 2022. "COVID-19 and adaptive behavior of returns: evidence from commodity markets," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2023. "Sovereign yield curves and the COVID-19 in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness between non-fungible tokens, decentralized finance, and conventional financial assets in a time-frequency framework," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    20. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    21. Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modelling the quantile cross-coherence between exchange rates: Does the COVID-19 pandemic change the interlinkage structure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; COVID-19 pandemic; Global financial crisis; Foreign exchange markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • B16 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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