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Higher-order comoment contagion among G20 equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

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Listed:
  • Renée Fry-McKibbin
  • Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo
  • Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao
  • Lin Qi

Abstract

We study the distribution of equity returns in the G20 equity markets to test for contagion following the first official report of a COVID19 case in China in December 2019 and the subsequent announcement of a global pandemic in March 2020. We find evidence of contagion of Chinese equity market tail risk in early 2020 followed by widespread evidence of contagion across multiple channels from the U.S. to G20 equity markets after the pandemic announcement. Our results suggest that global equity markets may be exposed to unpriced pandemic risk factors with implications for portfolio diversification, risk management and financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Renée Fry-McKibbin & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Lin Qi, 2021. "Higher-order comoment contagion among G20 equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," CAMA Working Papers 2021-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Vance L. Martin, 2019. "Joint tests of contagion with applications," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 473-490, March.
    2. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    3. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao, 2018. "Extremal dependence tests for contagion," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 626-649, July.
    4. Fry, Renée & Martin, Vance L. & Tang, Chrismin, 2010. "A New Class of Tests of Contagion With Applications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 423-437.
    5. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    6. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-455, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Hao-Wen & Chang, Tsangyao & Wang, Mei-Chih, 2024. "Revisit the impact of exchange rate on stock market returns during the pandemic period," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Aboagye, Ernest & Ko, Stanley Iat-Meng & Lo, Chia Chun & Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Peng, Liang, 2024. "A contagion test with unspecified heteroscedastic errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Marina Yu. Malkina, 2024. "Financial Contagion of the Commodity Markets from the Stock Market during Pandemic and New Sanctions Shocks," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(2), pages 452-475.
    4. Mirza, Nawazish & Abbas Rizvi, Syed Kumail & Saba, Irum & Naqvi, Bushra & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The resilience of Islamic equity funds during COVID-19: Evidence from risk adjusted performance, investment styles and volatility timing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-295.
    5. Zhu, Qinwen & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2023. "Volatility forecast with the regularity modifications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    6. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2024. "Financial contagion and networks among the oil and BRICS stock markets during seven episodes of crisis events," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Chakraborty, Sandip & Kakani, Ram Kumar & Sampath, Aravind, 2022. "Portfolio risk and stress across the business cycle," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Xing, Xiaoyun & Xu, Zihan & Chen, Ying & Ouyang, WenPei & Deng, Jing & Pan, Huanxue, 2023. "The impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the energy subsector stocks in China: A network-based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Contagion; Comoment Contagion Tests;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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