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Are commodity futures a hedge against inflation? A Markov-switching approach

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  • Liu, Chunbo
  • Zhang, Xuan
  • Zhou, Zhiping

Abstract

This study examines the inflation hedging ability of various commodity futures using Markov-switching vector error correction models (MS-VECM). We find that total commodity futures fail to provide a hedge against inflation over the sample period between January 1983 and December 2021. However, industrial metals and precious metals are able to hedge against inflation. Other sub-indexes, including energy, agriculture, and livestock, do not have a significant inflation hedging ability. The inflation hedging capacity of industrial metals exhibits substantial variation over time, with most of the inflation hedging power occurring during the relatively longer and more common regimes covering the Great Moderation, the post-subprime crisis, and the periods after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. We further evaluate the inflation hedge ability of commodity futures by including stocks and bonds in the model. Our results suggest that industrial metals are more reliable inflation hedges.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Chunbo & Zhang, Xuan & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Are commodity futures a hedge against inflation? A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s105752192300008x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102492
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaete, Michael & Herrera, Rodrigo, 2023. "Diversification benefits of commodities in portfolio allocation: A dynamic factor copula approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    2. Ahmed, Shamima & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Le, Van & Nath, Tamal & Rahman, Molla Ramizur, 2024. "Interconnectedness in the FOREX market during the high inflation regime: A network analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Yu, Xing & Shen, Xilin & Li, Yanyan & Gong, Xue, 2023. "Selective hedging strategies for crude oil futures based on market state expectations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W. & Mahapatra, Biplab, 2024. "Impact of media hype and fake news on commodity futures prices: A deep learning approach over the COVID-19 period," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Anthony N. Rezitis & Panagiotis Andrikopoulos & Theodoros Daglis, 2024. "Assessing the asymmetric volatility linkages of energy and agricultural commodity futures during low and high volatility regimes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 451-483, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation hedge; Commodity futures; Markov-switching models; Industrial metals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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