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Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets

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  • Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins
  • Abdullah, Mohammad
  • Tiwari, Aviral Kumar
  • Wali Ullah, G M

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of Russia-Ukraine war and associated economic sanctions sentiments on the returns of cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and DeFi assets. We analyse daily returns of twelve blockchain-based assets by employing quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) and an asymmetric time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach. The QQR reveals that the war sentiment has varying effects on the returns of digital assets, with negative (positive) impacts in bullish (bearish) markets. Notably, there is a heterogeneous effect observed in normal market conditions. Results from the TVP-VAR-based asymmetric connectedness approach demonstrate a time-varying influence of war sentiment, particularly heightened post-invasion. The war sentiment emerges as a significant transmitter (receiver) of price shocks in bullish (bearish) market conditions. These findings offer extensive implications for investors and policymakers when modelling market behavior during geopolitical events.

Suggested Citation

  • Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:69:y:2024:i:c:s0275531924000667
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102273
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrency; NFTs; DeFi; Quantile-on-quantile regression; Asymmetric connectedness; Russia-Ukraine war; Sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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