IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v80y2023ics0301420722005773.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multifractality and cross-correlation between the crude oil and the European and non-European stock markets during the Russia-Ukraine war

Author

Listed:
  • Adekoya, Oluwasegun B.
  • Asl, Mahdi Ghaemi
  • Oliyide, Johnson A.
  • Izadi, Parviz

Abstract

Financial markets are often at the mercy of diverse crises at the country-specific, regional, or global levels. However, these crises may impose different impacts on the performance of the financial markets, making investors and policymakers consistently interested in how the markets behave in such periods to be adequately guided in their investment and policy decisions. This study answers this curiosity by examining the multifractality and cross-correlation between oil prices and prominent European and non-European stock markets before and during the recent Russia-Ukraine war. Our empirical analysis detects a strong multifractal behaviour in the oil and stock markets. However, persistence is generally higher at the lower scales, representing the sampled periods' beginning. Moreover, the war has a stronger direct influence on the persistence of the oil and the European stock markets. In contrast, it has a stronger indirect impact on the persistence of the stock markets of non-European countries through oil prices. These countries, namely the U.S., Japan, and China, have the largest economies in the world. Nonetheless, the impact of oil prices was stronger for all the countries in the war period, as their stock markets became inefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Asl, Mahdi Ghaemi & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Izadi, Parviz, 2023. "Multifractality and cross-correlation between the crude oil and the European and non-European stock markets during the Russia-Ukraine war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:80:y:2023:i:c:s0301420722005773
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420722005773
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103134?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Johnson A. Oliyide & Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Muhammad A. Khan, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and the volatility connectedness between oil shocks and metal market: An extension," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 167, pages 136-150.
    3. Gaio, Luiz Eduardo & Stefanelli, Nelson Oliveira & Pimenta, Tabajara & Bonacim, Carlos Alberto Grespan & Gatsios, Rafael Confetti, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on market efficiency: Evidence for the developed stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Does oil connect differently with prominent assets during war? Analysis of intra-day data during the Russia-Ukraine saga," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Lo, Gaye-Del & Marcelin, Isaac & Bassène, Théophile & Sène, Babacar, 2022. "The Russo-Ukrainian war and financial markets: the role of dependence on Russian commodities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Manimaran, P. & Narayana, A.C., 2018. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on air pollutants of University of Hyderabad Campus, India," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 502(C), pages 228-235.
    7. Umechukwu, Chisom & Olayungbo, D.O., 2022. "US oil supply shocks and economies of oil-exporting African countries: A GVAR-Oil Resource Analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Mensi, Walid & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2019. "An analysis of the weak form efficiency, multifractality and long memory of global, regional and European stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 168-177.
    9. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Gozgor, Giray & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Impact of Russia-Ukraine war attention on cryptocurrency: Evidence from quantile dependence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Chortane, Sana Gaied & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Does the Russia-Ukraine war lead to currency asymmetries? A US dollar tale," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    12. Liu, Hongzhi & Zhang, Xingchen & Zhang, Xie, 2020. "Multiscale multifractal analysis on air traffic flow time series: A single airport departure flight case," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    13. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2021. "How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adetokunbo, Abiodun M., 2021. "On the connection between oil and global foreign exchange markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Ahmad, Nasir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Asymmetric multifractal behaviour and network connectedness between socially responsible stocks and international oil before and during COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 587(C).
    16. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Stock market efficiency analysis using long spans of Data: A multifractal detrended fluctuation approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 398-411.
    17. Lee, Kyoung Eun & Lee, Jae Woo, 2007. "Probability distribution function and multiscaling properties in the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 65-70.
    18. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Akinseye, Ademola B. & Ogunbowale, Gideon O., 2022. "Oil and multinational technology stocks: Predicting fear with fear at the first and higher order moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    19. Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi & Zhao, Lin, 2013. "Cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate crude oil and the stock markets of the BRIC," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(21), pages 5356-5368.
    20. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    21. Yao, Can-Zhong & Liu, Cheng & Ju, Wei-Jia, 2020. "Multifractal analysis of the WTI crude oil market, US stock market and EPU," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    22. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Ogunbowale, Gideon O. & Akinseye, Ademola B. & Oduyemi, Gabriel O., 2021. "Improving the predictability of stock returns with global financial cycle and oil price in oil-exporting African countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 166-181.
    23. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
    24. Mensi, Walid & Hamdi, Atef & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "Modelling multifractality and efficiency of GCC stock markets using the MF-DFA approach: A comparative analysis of global, regional and Islamic markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 1107-1116.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Yan & Liu, Tianli & Du, Pei, 2024. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures based on Bi-LSTM-Attention model: The dynamic role of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Hamza, Taher & Ben Haj Hamida, Hayet & Mili, Mehdi & Sami, Mina, 2024. "High inflation during Russia–Ukraine war and financial market interaction: Evidence from C-Vine Copula and SETAR models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    3. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Dai, Yun-Shi & Duong, Kiet Tuan & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2024. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the extreme risk spillovers between agricultural futures and spots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 91-111.
    4. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Sinha, Avik & Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict sentiments and energy market returns in G7 countries: Discovering the unexplored dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Su, Chi-Wei & Yang, Shengjie & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Gold vs bitcoin: Who can resist panic in the U.S.?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    6. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Richard Barichello, 2023. "The shock of war: do trade relations impact the reaction of stock markets to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 14-27.
    7. Jiang, Wei & Chen, Yunfei, 2024. "Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the time-frequency and quantile connectedness between energy, metal and agricultural markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "EU sectoral stocks amid geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and crude oil implied volatility: An asymmetric analysis of the Russia-Ukraine tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Ghorbali, Bassem & Kaabia, Olfa & Naoui, Kamel & Urom, Christian & Slimane, Ikrame Ben, 2023. "Wheat as a hedge and safe haven for equity investors during the Russia–Ukraine war," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    10. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Assaf, Rima & Chaibi, Anis & Makram, Beljid, 2024. "The nexus between mineral, renewable commodities, and regional stock sectors during health and military crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Aslam, Faheem & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Memon, Bilal Ahmed & Zhang, Mingda, 2024. "Interplay of multifractal dynamics between shadow policy rates and energy markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Li, Jingwen & Wang, Yue & Song, Yubing & Su, Chi Wei, 2023. "How resistant is gold to stress? New evidence from global supply chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    15. Karamti, Chiraz & Jeribi, Ahmed, 2023. "Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    16. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2023. "How does the Russian-Ukrainian war change connectedness and hedging opportunities? Comparison between dirty and clean energy markets versus global stock indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between global commodity sectors, news sentiment, and sub-Saharan African equities," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    18. Li, Zhihui & Tian, Yun, 2024. "Skewed multifractal cross-correlation between price and volume during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from China and European carbon markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Liu, Wei & Chen, Xiao & Zhang, Jihong, 2023. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive energy transition: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    3. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Piotr Fiszeder & Marta Ma³ecka, 2022. "Forecasting volatility during the outbreak of Russian invasion of Ukraine: application to commodities, stock indices, currencies, and cryptocurrencies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(4), pages 939-967, December.
    5. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adeabah, David & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2023. "Effect of Russia–Ukraine war sentiment on blockchain and FinTech stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    7. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Yousaf, Imran & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Li, Yanshuang, 2024. "Economic sanctions sentiment and global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2023. "How does the Russian-Ukrainian war change connectedness and hedging opportunities? Comparison between dirty and clean energy markets versus global stock indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Assaf, Rima & Chaibi, Anis & Makram, Beljid, 2024. "The nexus between mineral, renewable commodities, and regional stock sectors during health and military crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    10. Shrestha, Keshab & Naysary, Babak & Philip, Sheena Sara Suresh, 2023. "Fintech market efficiency: A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Assaf, Rima & Rai, Varun Kumar, 2023. "Did the Indian stock market sail the Russia-Ukraine storm safely?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    12. Marta Anita Karaś & Michał Boda, 2024. "Stabilność i wyniki finansowe banków w krajach Europy graniczących z konfliktem militarnym w Ukrainie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 64-111.
    13. Alshater, Muneer M. & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & El Khoury, Rim, 2023. "Dynamic asymmetric connectedness in technological sectors," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    14. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Doğan, Buhari & Sharma, Gagan Deep & Mentel, Urszula, 2023. "The reaction of the metal and gold resource planning in the post-COVID-19 era and Russia-Ukrainian conflict: Role of fossil fuel markets for portfolio hedging strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Małgorzata Tarczynska-Luniewska & Iwona Bak & Uma Shankar Singh & Guru Ashish Singh, 2022. "Economic Crisis Impact Assessment and Risk Exposure Evaluation of Selected Energy Sector Companies from Bombay Stock Exchange," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-25, November.
    17. Ahmed, Shamima & Assaf, Rima & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Tabassum, Fariha, 2023. "Is geopolitical risk interconnected? Evidence from Russian-Ukraine crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    18. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Anwar, Rija, 2024. "Precious metals and currency markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s inflationary periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    19. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Kenku, Oluwademilade T. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Comparative response of global energy firm stocks to uncertainties from the crude oil market, stock market, and economic policy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Hassan, M Kabir & Boubaker, Sabri & Kumari, Vineeta & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Border disputes and heterogeneous sectoral returns: An event study approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia-Ukraine war; Oil price; Stock market; Multifractality; Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:80:y:2023:i:c:s0301420722005773. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.