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Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations

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  • K. Istrefi
  • A. Piloiu

Abstract

Theory and evidence suggest that in an environment of well-anchored expectations, temporary economic news or shocks should not affect agents' expectations of inflation in the long term. Our estimated structural VARs show that both long- and short-term inflation expectations are sensitive to policy-related uncertainty shocks. While economic activity contracts, long-term inflation expectations raise in response to such shocks. These results suggest that observed uncertainty about the stance and perceived effectiveness of policy raises concerns about future inflation and entails additional risks to central banks' hard-won inflation credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Istrefi & A. Piloiu, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Working papers 511, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:511
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy uncertainty; central banks; inflation expectations; structural VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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